Not a 1% return though. $8 premium on a $23.50 cost basis is 34% return immediately. Not accounting for the 32% gain should the shares get called away. You very much reduce your downside with covered calls on big movers due to the inflated IV. I have a few positions where my effective cost basis is $0 from selling premiums.

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Hey I have a data science background. This is good and entertaining fluff, but if you know what you're looking at, there are important things missing and some things that look good but don't make sense. I give him 4.8/5 for making it look important. For example: He has two time series (S&P500 and the bonds) and he compares them to many possible offsets. This is called cross-correlation analysis. It's a real thing, but it's also notorious for overfitting the data and showing spurious relationships if you misuse it like OP dies here. When you test many different offsets, you increase the probability of finding a high correlation *somewhere*, purely out of random chance. This is kind of like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row; it's impressive if you only flipped the coin 10 times, but much less exciting if you flipped it 10 million times. You were bound to get a 10-head steak at some point. An overfit predictor is one that performs very well on the historical data used to find it, but poorly on new, unseen data. If you select the single best lag based purely on the highest R-value from your historical test (precisely what OP did here), you risk overfitting to random noise that exists in the sample, but isn't truly predictive. And that's almost surely been done here and the validation should have been on showing that the model isn't overfit. To validate a model like that you wouldn't back-test (what OP does). Some things you could do are split the data into in and out of sample (e.g. make the model based on only the first X days in the series, and then judge it based on its ability to predict the data after day X). You should/could take steps to remove seasonality or trends within the time series first (which we already damn well know the stock market is seasonal, so him using untransformed values is most definitely increasing his calculated correlation). It would also be good to do bootstrapping to check statistical significance, instead of just p value. But it is very entertaining. OP probably also has a data background, to be knowing what to do to specifically torture the data this way.

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All must go right. You are paying a very high premium for hopium and vibes. “Analysts expect Rocket Lab (RKLB) to achieve profitability on a GAAP basis around 2027, driven by increased Neutron rocket launches, higher launch prices, and growing Space Systems revenue, though current losses stem from heavy R&D investment in Neutron. While adjusted EBITDA may turn positive in 2026, the key catalyst for GAAP profitability is Neutron's full operational status, with its launch delayed from late 2025 into 2026, pushing the profit timeline back.”

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I’ll buy $PCT. I need to search more information but this action is very cheap now, pal. I think you have right!! Thx

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During the early pop it was burning cash completely unprofitable, had very little buy in from other financial institutions and EPS was in the minus

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Sure but the movement is very similar. You just apply leverage.

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What a shit post. I applaud that regards exist in such force that this post is a real thing. Rather than learning about the market, or even just…going outside, OP spent time to build an A+ quality shit post complete with graphs and everything. Very entertaining. I feel bad for your family, obviously. But very entertaining.

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Very interesting 👌 any reason no data pre 2022 is used?

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ASTS will easily be $300 in 2030 even with a full year delay to current timelines. That is the very conservative estimate. It's 60% of my portfolio at the moment.

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What else do you recommend? Trying to build a more defensive slice in my core allocation with commodities/maybe utilities or healthcare. Oil wasn't a good play, weird how low prices are. I already got some gold but got in pretty late. It does over the very long term outperform silver so i ignored it but now i'm getting fomo.

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