Calls on SPY 700 expiring 12/31 trading at around 0.1 delta which is a good proxy for % chance of being ITM at expiration…so market pricing in about 10% chance
“This rabble doth cry ‘Ber fuc!’ and ‘Fries in bag!’
Shouting ‘Saylor the fool!’ and boasting,
‘Lo, I am the one-percent commenter, hunter of bears!’
And yet, good sir… each year they trail fair SPY by seven full percent.”