>Hey dude
>I have a new thing to doom about: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1S9Kz&height=490
>Tell me what you think?
This is well known for a long time, I spoke about this a lot earlier last year when people began discussing it more and more. Transfer receipts are a big part of income yes. And as I predicted, it would not matter.
It would only be a problem if we thought government was cutting transfer receipts.
They aren't. In a normal environment theoretically we should reduce deficits during boom years to create policy space for a potential black swan or crisis. However, we're very much in the "printing is net good" and WW2 deficits during peace time are considered overwhelmingly positive by the public and thought leaders. There is extremely solid consensus and support. Until that changes, it will have very little impact on nominal growth or the market.
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Edit: and yes as I stated many times, SPX going to 7500 this year, bare minimum. Likely far higher like 7700+. Very high GDP and earnings growth will continue. Currently economy growing at 8%+, earnings double digits. Bank lending soaring 6.6% a year.
https://i.imgur.com/tQfJ9dQ.png
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_021326.pdf
https://i.imgur.com/BRCjV0P.png
Btw saw ur post history and my brother just another me. I also have issue with floaters starting this year but glasses help. In my second year of uni I’m an 06. I also be sports betting but not very profitable 😂. Anyways best of luck with everything g!
The Noodle Analogy from Veep is so quaint:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfMT6-ptP-g
Doesn't apply when your back is against the wall because of the Epstein Files.