EU expenditure is a known though. Margins won't magically improve and you can't build new fabs in a day that will handle the increased demand. Rhenmetall has PE of like 70 doesn't it? They can't just drastically grow, that's now how it works. It's all priced in and short term top is in for those stocks.

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Few questions. 1) why aren’t you using a CAPM for the cost of equity as it seems like some factors such as idiosyncratic risk and size premia are missing? Also the cost of debt to get the WACC. The 7.4% seems a bit low compared to the high on! growth / high assumed base case returns. 2)40% base case growth for on! products seems like an extreme bull case, no? 20% seems like a bull case even, given pouches were a big trend from ‘22–24. My co workers/ friends were big into Zyns during that timeframe but I’ve since seen them quit. 3)Younger Americans (18-30) would be more likely to convert to Juuls/nicotine pods than cigs in my opinion. I don’t see many people smoking cigs routinely, but I do commonly see people sneaking in a shameful Juul hit in public places. 4)Total debt is high, but coverage ratios are pretty goodish. What are the current maturities? Also what % of par are their bonds trading at? (You said this is a long term play but still a good indicator to see how much lower it could go). 5)Revenues have been declining since 2020 but net of excise tax they have barely increased? Was this due to a specific legislation? The current admin is beneficial to the tobacco industry but is a 14% excise tax a realistic projection? I do like the high div as that will incentivize long plays and gives the company an extra lever to pull incase on! doesn’t grow and the situation becomes distressed. This is well put together and very thorough. I really enjoyed reading this. Thank you.

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When I grow up I wanna win the FIFA Peace Prize

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It's closer to 300k in market gains (\~10% average since 1990). \~7% accounting for inflation (210k) - of which draw out just over half of that (110k). I accounted for those things. Basically just sell \~3.5% of your assets per annum. It's more conservative than the 4% rule. That draw rate will run you indefinitely and grow faster than inflation. You'd actually get to draw out more than 110k in year 2, more in year 3, etc. \--- Income comes in the form long term capital gains. Online calculators suggest you'd owe \~10k in tax on that - which means after tax you get \~100k of disposable income per annum. That'd grow with inflation \--- \> 30 year old couple, but we don’t live 2x better than them. Yea, we spend slightly more on housing, but part of that comes with WFH. We lease a new Honda every 3 years cause both of us cba to deal with the stress of a mechanical issue. You are living well above the average. It's a case of lifestyle creep more than anything imo. I also WFH (and know several people that do as well). They work in the living room / at an office desk, etc. You have \~1k sqr ft / person. I know families of 4 who live in \~1400 sqr ft AND have an office at home. I grew up in a \~2400 sqr ft home with a family of 6 and 3 dogs. The reality is that the average person spends less than $100 / month on entertainment & hobbies. They also live in a smaller & cheaper home. They spend less on food and also eat out less. Even in a HCOL area - it's mostly just attributed to rent. \--- For a thought experiment - if you guys only had $100k income - how would you live? Can you adjust your lifestyle down to that? The average income in america is only 67k / person. Are you willing to live cheaper (just compromise on a home). If yes - you can save more / invest more & retire earlier. Alternatively - you can take all that saved money and go on vacations, etc. \--- You have a ton of time / space left to compound your income to afford these freedoms as your assets grow

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Japan is far beyond the fairydust stage tho lol. Sure they have currency but it doesnt really matter. Its just grow up>pick a corp>live at work 90% of the time. And they cant overprice each other cuz the yakuza and other social factors will fuck up anyone who tries to greedily corner any market.

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my thesis is oral pouches have grown exponentially over the past 5 years acquiring younger non smoking consumers. Pouches will both continue to grow & there will be natural attrition from pouches to cigs from former non smokers. Altria owns the second biggest pouch and half the cigs. The market is discounting it. The joe rogan part is exemplary of a bottoming in the tobacco consumption & sentiment decline in the US.

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I want it to go up but I’m not sure that their business model can grow steadily…

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Ok and? You weren't punching in a trade you were glancing at positions. Grow a spine man.

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Getting in at 85k ain't bad. Better than near ath. But yeah don't expect it to grow for a few years.

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on themselves? you teenage girl or something? grow the fuck up

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