In four days I will be sipping pina coladas on the beach in Mexico

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From my friend Claude - Worth saying upfront: I'm made by Anthropic, and the entire thesis hinges on what Anthropic is worth. Take my read with that in mind. I've tried to check the claims rather than form a view. **What checks out** Most of the facts are right, which puts this above the WSB average. CEF Connect shows a share price of $34.24 against NAV of $34.30, and a 52-week range where price hit $72.87 and NAV hit $34.30. The May comparison is accurate: the stock traded at $61.66 against a NAV of $24.56, a 151% premium, and at its April 2024 peak buyers paid over 400% above the value of the underlying assets. The insider buying is real: Sohail Prasad made 3 purchases buying 56,000 shares for an estimated $1,767,343 with no sales. And the New York Times reported in late-August 2026 that an eventual IPO could value Anthropic at $2 trillion, against a Series H in May 2026 at $965 billion post-money. **Where it falls apart** **The "10% discount to NAV" is a discount to a stale number the manager produced.** CEF Connect's 8 September page lists the NAV as of 31 March 2026. Destiny's own documentation says the fund strikes a quarterly NAV, and fair value determinations are made by the adviser's valuation committee with assistance from an independent third-party valuation firm. You are not buying a discount to observable assets. You are buying a discount to the manager's own estimate of illiquid private stakes, months after the fact. **The Anthropic re-rate is mostly already in the NAV.** The $965B round closed in May. NAV went from $19.97 at the end of Q4 2025 to $34.30, and total return on NAV over 12 months is 395.66%. The markup has happened. Run the actual numbers on the post's own inputs: Anthropic at 14.4% of a $34.30 NAV is about $4.94 per share. Going from $965B to $2T adds roughly $5.30, which is where the post's "$40 NAV" comes from. But that requires the full $2T. At the more sober base case, secondary markets price Anthropic at $1.05 to $1.15 trillion and FutureSearch projects a median first-day market cap of $1.10 trillion, a 14% premium over the last private round, which adds about 70 cents per share. Not several dollars. **The $2T figure is a forward-forward projection.** It rests on projected 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion. That is two years of flawless execution priced in today, leaked to journalists by parties who benefit from it being believed. **The real thesis is "the premium comes back," and the post's own data argues against it.** Every price target listed is NAV multiplied by an assumed premium. That isn't valuation, it's a bet that other people will pay more. But look at what actually happened: the 52-week average premium was 74% and the 52-week high premium was 290%, while the 6-month average is a 1.92% discount. The premium collapsed from triple digits to zero **through** the SpaceX IPO, the single biggest catalyst this fund has ever had. SpaceX listed in 2026 as one of the two largest IPOs ever. The post frames the May buyers as lunatics, but they were buying the same "premium inflates into the IPO" thesis it's now recommending. It didn't work. That's the precedent, not the exception. **The fee structure is worse than "a giant pile of T-bills" sounds.** The 2.50% annual management fee is charged on gross assets, not NAV, and the total expense ratio for 2024 came in at approximately 6.28% of average net assets, making DXYZ one of the most expensive publicly traded funds available. You're paying 2.5% a year to hold treasuries. The T-bill pile is a cost centre, not a feature. **Post-IPO, the fund's reason to exist shrinks.** Once Anthropic lists you can just buy Anthropic. And 2026 US IPO proceeds have hit a record while new listings have lagged the market. **My read** The one genuinely good point is buybacks below NAV, which are accretive, and insider buying alongside them. That's a real floor mechanism and I'd credit it. But the structure of the argument is: buy at fair value, sell at an irrational premium to a stale self-mark. That works until it doesn't, and the chart says it already stopped working four months ago. Context also matters for timing. The Fed decision lands in hours with a hike priced at 91%, and AI-related stocks sold off sharply on 14 September as concerns over AI risk intensified. There's a certain irony in Anthropic trying to convince Wall Street it deserves one of the biggest debuts in market history while simultaneously saying the pace of AI development needs to slow down. A high-beta, illiquid, 6%-fee closed-end fund is about the worst vehicle to hold into that combination. Separately: you're already long this theme through NVDA, MU and CRWD, which is where most of your gains sit. Adding a leveraged-sentiment wrapper on the same trade concentrates rather than diversifies. If you want the Anthropic exposure, waiting for the S-1 and buying the actual listing is a cleaner expression with no fee drag and no premium risk. I'd skip DXYZ.

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Peeing green will be if u drink four loco

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Need some advice. I have whatever level is below paper for hands and am getting nervous about my four Oct 16, $340 AVGO calls. I think I might need some more time for Hawk Tuah CEO to be proven right on his big earnings forecasts. For the same money I have in these I could roll them into two Dec $340 calls or one Dec $300 call. Leaning toward the two Dec $340 but could be talked into the single $300.

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Invest in another market if you hate what’s happening so much. Seriously. Go invest in your countries bonds even if it’s the US. World is filled with people who cuss the us then turn around to their shit country and want some US based bailout, or you’re having worse problems than us but your media doesn’t cover it because they will be killed Or you’re US based and don’t vote locally or anything, just once every four years for someone you claim to know but really know nothing about while your local council runs unchecked, then come in here and talk. Empty, grand soapboxes and glass houses everywhere

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We are pleased to announce that OPERATION JEROME GO HOME was successful and we have destroyed the federal reserve and decapitated its leadership with pinpoint accuracy thanks to the amazing AI targeting system built by Palantir. The four schools that were also hit were simply big whoopsies.

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For anyone feeling bad they ever lost out on a fortune, here’s a story My dad used to work one block over from Wizards of the Coast, the first licensed US distributor for the original Pokemon card wave.  My dad went out to lunch with some of the folks there since they shared the same office strip. He became friends with some of them. Everytime they came out with a new set in the 2000s, like the Jungle set or EX booster packs, his friends would give him these sets that were hard to find in stores since they were considered first wave products for the big retailers. The employees got them as novelty gifts sometimes and they handed them out to family and friends. They were worth about probably $3.50 resale at the time. Every Friday after I got off school, he’d give a couple to me if I behaved that week. This went on for about 3-4 years and through a dozen different set releases until Wizards of the West Coast lost their US Pokemon licensing rights sometime in 2004. That’s when I stopped getting new packs. Dumbass me tore open every single one of those factory first/first edition shadowless packs four years in a row, from Pre K to 3rd grade. I must’ve had a couple hundred of them up at one point because I never had to buy Pokémon cards ever. And I had several chests full of a dozen-per-pack cards, which meant I had opened hundreds of packs as a kid. I looked up the current market value for rare shadowless packs from 1999-2004 and all the same stuff I had gotten from that era. My net worth as of 2025 should have been about 800k-1.8M and appreciating annually if my dad had just kept them to himself for twenty years.

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Here’s a story My dad used to work one block over from Wizards of the Coast, the first licensed US distributor for the original Pokemon card wave.  My dad went out to lunch with some of the folks there since they shared the same office strip. He became friends with some of them. Everytime they came out with a new set in the 2000s, like the Jungle set or EX booster packs, his friends would give him these sets that were hard to find in stores since they were considered first wave products for the big retailers. The employees got them as novelty gifts sometimes and they handed them out to family and friends. They were worth about probably $3.50 resale at the time. Every Friday after I got off school, he’d give a couple to me if I behaved that week. This went on for about 3-4 years and through a dozen different set releases until Wizards of the West Coast lost their US Pokemon licensing rights sometime in 2004. That’s when I stopped getting new packs. Dumbass me tore open every single one of those factory first/first edition shadowless packs four years in a row, from Pre K to 3rd grade. I must’ve had a couple hundred of them up at one point because I never had to buy Pokémon cards ever. And I had several chests full of a dozen-per-pack cards, which meant I had opened hundreds of packs as a kid. I looked up the current market value for rare shadowless packs from 1999-2004 and all the same stuff I had gotten from that era. My net worth as of 2025 should have been about 800k-1.8M and appreciating annually if my dad had just kept them to himself for twenty years.

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Why four days specifically?

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No warnings for four weeks. We are fucked

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