Interesting, but I think there are a few econometric checks missing that could materially affect the conclusions. Most importantly: if any of this is based on price levels or smoothed price levels (e.g. 90-day moving averages), both series are almost certainly non-stationary. Correlations and cross-correlations between non-stationary series can look highly significant even when the relationship is spurious, unless you explicitly test for stationarity or cointegration. Related to that: - Using rolling averages introduces strong autocorrelation and overlapping observations, which inflates t-stats and p-values if not corrected. - The peak at a −49 day lag looks like it was selected after scanning many lags, that’s effectively multiple testing, so the reported p-value likely overstates significance. - Min–max normalization makes unrelated trending series visually align, which can be misleading. To really support a predictive claim, do: 1. stationarity tests (ADF/KPSS) and returns-based analysis, 2. lag selection done out-of-sample or with multiple-testing correction, 3. HAC / bootstrap inference, and 4. a clean out-of-sample forecast comparison vs a simple benchmark. Without those, it’s hard to rule out a constructed lead-lag relationship rather than a genuine signal.

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Yeah they are exclusively ok as true crisis insurance. Crisis so bad even gold gets sold off to buy bonds. However when interest rates get jacked again they're cooked. When rates get cut over a longer period like the 2010s the stock market will boom so much bonds are a joke. The play would be hold stocks, sniff out a covid crisis somehow using your crystal ball, switch to bonds, when they hit their peak sell them for variable rate or inflation adjusted bonds right before cpi comes in at 10% and rates are about to get jacked out of inflation fears, when they hit their peak switch to stocks again. Obviously impossible to time. Just hold gold instead of bonds, works well enough as crisis insurance even though in a full sell off crisis it's not safe either. Bonds just make no sense. Even chatgpt is telling me to avoid long dated bonds. Itis recommending ultra short and short duration bonds and maybe tips as a 'cash-like' holding with hopefully better yield than just keeping cash in a savings account, however i can't get myself to ever buy bonds again.

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The Trump family position in DJT was worth $1.71 billion as of Thursday’s close, up from $1.20 billion on Wednesday At its peak in May 2024, it was valued at $6.5 billion. For much of 2024, DJT shares traded as a proxy for Trump’s chances in the November 2024 election. This year, they are down 56%—even after Thursday’s jump—because Trump Media’s $2 billion bet on Bitcoin has gone sour

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Bill relaxing in a hottub is peak meme material and I’m here for it

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We just had a fat correction, still think over valued ? Can’t be that over valued when were in an AI growth curve that will expand exponentially until it’s reached some sort of peak, and we aren’t even close my friend

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Scalping will stop working here pretty soon. What thats going to look like is slow price movement followed by sharp hills and dives. Basically, the pricing will align perfectly with theta decay. So at any time you buy an option, you start losing money. But whichever side sells more naked, thats where the peak will lean into. So at best youll make enough to pay the transaction fee lol.

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This is peak male performance right here *takes off shirt, reveals ample manboobs and belly fat*

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Should've held it. I was down nearly $4M from the peak a couple of years ago but it's come all back and more.

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