"No market substitute" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that thesis. Google Workspace competes at enterprise scale, Linux dominates servers and is increasingly viable for desktops, and Azure has always been a weak competitor compared to AWS and GCP. France and Germany are actively migrating government systems off Microsoft products - Schleswig-Holstein alone is moving 30,000 systems to Linux.
Their only moat is switching costs, not product superiority, and that's a defensive moat that works until it doesn't. At 22 PE it's not egregiously priced, but the bull case assumes enterprises never bother switching - an assumption that weakens when governments mandate alternatives or cost savings become too large to ignore.
i just see paypal as a reasonable bet tbh. New ceo, low pe compared to competitors. Small position and dca or cheap call and give new guy a few months to turn it around
I know it's the butt of every joke, but MSFT is approaching such a cheap P:E ratio that if you look back at the last 30 years if you bought when it's PE ratio was this low, you'd guarantee a profit within 16 months.
I just made that up but I bet it's actually true.
sorry bro ive lost stacks too. diversify it into amazon meta google microsoft if i were you split 4 ways right now. tesla is a train wreck and is overvalued if you google pe ratios, it's worth about $80 as a tech stock and $20 as a car stock