Dude, are you from another planet? :D
There is no actual destroyed output. Ukraine has hit Russia 221!!!! times during the last 7 months and BARELY dented their production, and the russians managed to get their full capacity online WITHOUT western help.
Stop dooming. Be inteligent.
They agreed to a cease fire and opening the Strait. Just what he had demanded in the first place. And whatever tags they put on it: A cease fire means no military operations, thus any attempt to enforce some kind of submission by others would break the cease fire and I doubt he´d give them another chance after that.
We´ll see. Hopefully this holds. Now someone has to explain to them like to a 5 year old, that the demands they pretend to be maximum goals are actually the bottom line and negotiable is only what they get in return. They should have gotten that part when he started the war because they weren´t serious about achiving those minimum requirement for a deal, but eh, snow from yesterday.
Today however the markets should pass Artemis II as they head for the moon and a hopefully soft landing with a resolution to the conflict in due time. God willing this is all just a bad memory in 4 weeks. And maybe my port can recover (yeah ... fat chance...).
I don´t really believe it, but we saw tonight, you have always leave the door open a bit for a glimmer of hope.
Is it?
Say hostilities end…and we find out 2 mmbbl/d is offline for at least a year.
What else if we find out Iran caps tankers at 80% to the GCC to enforce OPEC goals that they are now in charge of. Or just simply charges their boats $20M instead of everyone else’s $2M?
And Israel? Just March back from Lebanon and sit tight, waiting for a buildup of enemies that they finally had gotta ahead of? Speaking of the GCC too, they just want to become vassals of Iran? Because that’s what control of their trade means.
Nah, even the peace has lots of global energy peril still ahead of it.