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Lennar Corp

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About Lennar Corp

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I have DE, LEN, HD & KRE puts open right now. If you’re somewhat bearish on *parts* of the economy, these are very good choices. Deere - holder of many souring loans, impacted badly by tariff policy on both ends of supply/demand, impacted poorly by immigration policy as well, a traditional cyclical that now looks materially weaker than rival (CAT) and simply trades at a huge premium for no reason. Lennar - it’s simply the weakest looking home builder in a crashing housing market. It’s impacted poorly by policy. They gave up margin to keep sales flowing. Execs *HAVE NOT* sold shares. Pretty much the only ticker related to housing where execs have not dumped. I think, under the hood, it could be so bad that that’s the reason they have not dumped. Also, the Warren Buffett kiss of death applies here. Dude will knowingly buy DISTRESSED companies because he knows more than us. Maybe he’s just 100 years old, can no longer see the future and all he knows is that it’s distressed and needed him to buy stock? Home Depot - trades too high, impacted poorly by admin policy, housing crashing. This one is the biggest softball of bunch for just an immediate and quick 10-15% pullback. KRE - regional banks are extremely fragile and have been pumping for no reason. PNC had to swoop in and pick up a FAILING BANK over the weekend. While Home Depot is the most obvious for what you see on the surface.. regionals is the most obvious if you’ve deep dived how bad those CRE and re-performing loans look 👀 Now we know we’re seeing less workers. Their books look worse and worse every day. If you want financials/bank exposure in your port, there is literally not one reason to own a regional except for the fact you might drive pass the logo on your daily commute. Shit is bad bad 👀 These and other hyper-inflated NON-TECH stonks are the tickers that need to come down the most if we are to avoid some larger, broader collapse in the coming months.
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