New This Week: Macro Mondays
Sharpe Macro is an offline macro consultancy just starting to go "on the line." We're helping them get started and they have agreed to let us use their content on Mondays. The Sharpe Macro team has decades of analyst experience advising some of the most prestigious financial institutions in the world. We think you'll find their insights both interesting and actionable.
This Weeks Buzz Alerts Highlights
We wrote about 5 WSB ideas this week, all of which went either up or down after we spoke positively or negatively about the stocks or options
What is r/WallStreetBets All About?
Lmao, this subreddit is 1/3 Gambling Addicts 1/3 Wealthy Dues with money to piss away for karma and 1/3 Young people with a stimulus check thinking they’re gonna become rich off buy a call or put. Intellectual we aint. We’re degenerates.
But incredibly self aware! The one thing I love about r/wallstreetbets is that, ultimately, all investment is gambling. People like to pretend that they're not gambling on the stock market because their portfolio is diversified and they did their market research and they read that one book by Warren Buffet and they're smart investors. And then the housing market crashes, or the dotcom bubble bursts, or Brexit crashes their Forex investment, or a fucking global pandemic wipes out their 401k. And they're standing around dumbfounded and asking how this could possibly happen, because they've somehow deluded themselves into thinking that they're different from all those people that gamble away their life savings on slot machines or penny stocks. They can't loose all their money, because they're not gambling. r/wallstreetbets gets it. It's all fucking gambling. You can delude yourself into thinking you're somehow a cunning investor that can't possibly loose on your AAA rated subprime mortgage backed investments, or you can just admit you have a gambling problem and bet a few thousand dollars on what the TSLA stock price is gonna do based off of some funny meme. At the end of the day it's all a gamble.
This is why every worthwhile investor always says that investing is not about intellect or anything else, it’s about being able to stomach the bumps and give zero fucks and not change your positions. Making money investing over a time horizon of 5+ years is not difficult-even through crashes, even if you did something as boring as index investing over the last 5 years, you’d still be up ~25%, and that’s after the market recently tanked, give it a few years and you’re back to ATH and CAGR probably close to 10%. If you want to get a little more adventurous and invest in Facebook(or some other famous company)5 years ago, you would’ve more than doubled your money-and who on this earth would think Facebook wouldn’t print tendies as a business. It’s a pretty smooth ride as long as you buy and forget about it. And this is true throughout most of history. Over time stonks only go up Puts on TSLA though cause YOLO and I have 💎👐
Exactly. Investing is (mostly) not about intellect, hot information, or anything else. Investing is about discipline and character. Don't spend your hard-earned money, invest it. Don't chase returns, stay diversified and maintain a cash cushion. No major moves when the market drops. At the end of the day, you're playing the long game and you need to treat it as such.
How do you play such a distorted market? How long can the market ignore Q2 earnings results? I went all cash because I'm torn between the power of the fed and ignoring my economics degree knowing what is happening with our economy. Its driving me crazy. My day job is a mail man, I see what is happening to my community and the amount of UI letters, actual business closings and the number of people still going out ignoring stay at home orders (DE). I believe this will be a depression like event just with better government intervention. No guarantees even finding a vaccine in '18 months'. My lessons after 8k overall losses in FOMO SPY puts is be better at mindfully watching what the market is telling me and just play along until shit hits the fan sometime in the next few weeks/months. My brain says SPY 260p 9/18, my instinct says buy TSLA. Good luck brothers
TDOC Making House CALLS
been riding calls for 4 months. every time i mention it in this sub, idiots talk about barriers to entry and shit, and are absolutely clueless. that means buy.
I work in the industry. That stock is riding on pure hopium. I think it's a good short term play, though i never saw it coming this far ($14 BILL? LOL) Long term, the big players will just copy it and cut them out. And it's already happened with some private companies as in some private orgs are offering better solutions than teladoc. Only a matter of time if you catch my drift
Everything rides on hope. Private players you refer to are only in the US. They, TDOC, have international services. Not saying it’s going to moon forever but there is a good reason this run started before COVID. I too work in the industry and work directly with smaller players who are transitioning to virtual. The problem everyone runs into in the US is licensing across states. TDOC has a major lead there. The run up is on hope of a buy out by United Aetna or Cigna. That would give them the true vertical integration they’re lacking and the lowest costs. They have a strong relationship with UNH. All that said, the best play is One Medical $ONEM.
I'm intimately familiar with One Medical and it's a garbage company, at least compared to it's niche peers Also you are smoking some whack dope if you think United Aetna or Cigna is gonna pay $14 Bill+ for this piece of shit. I actually know for a fact that one of them won't. But i'm gonna stop there
Lmao you seem to know everything. Why are you on this sub?
Good for trade ideas and bullshitting/laughs. Never claimed to know everything. I do know a lot about healthcare
Our favorite thing about going through these WSB conversations is the interesting domain-specific insights that some users have...
How easy is TDOC to replicate? I know the bare minimum about the company and their services but was curious about that and if they will be facing some new competition in the coming year.
Not easy. Contracts with provider networks/HIPAA are a bitch.
What if a health network or doctor's office decides to do what they're doing now, except also offer the option to do the appointment by Facetime or Skype or Zoom. Credit card billing (or whatever insurance BS they do already). HIPAA - do whatever they do already. What do they need TDOC for? Why give them a piece?
They can't, since any third party software also needs to be HIPAA compliant. There are others, but Teladoc is the most established. Teladoc also has a network of doctors. I don't own any shares of TDOC, but I've been interested the past couple of weeks.
Hippa compliant software isn’t a challenge...
but but telehealth is the future /s
Could Cerner or EPIC (health record companies) potentially offer a similar service? I don't think HIPAA would be too much trouble for them since they are already in virtually every large clinic.
I think they can, but there doesn't seem to be any news from them regarding telemedicine.
They are wise and are not trying to become a provider.
Why would that be wise?
Too many reasons to list. They’re a software company.
This is just false. Contracts are plenty easy because it's all done through the payor who has all the Network IP and they're actively looking for other options. It's funny to see how full of shit people are on this board once you actually know a lot about the discussed topic.
Not as easy as just jumping on ZM like the poster suggested.
What's not easy about a doctor's office using zoom instead of in-person?
The regular version of Zoom isn't HIPAA certified. The one with cert is $200 per user per month. Teladoc takes a cut of copays, so no upfront costs for the office, as far as I know. That said, I think TDOC is overpriced. I'd only be comfortable buying at $120-130, but I'm also more risk averse than a lot of the sub.
ZM has a hipaa compliant platform. And the payors will eventually have the leverage over teladoc. When you buy teladoc, you're buying future earnings potential which means you're betting on them innovating further because it's only a matter of time before their platform is commoditized. Basically TDOC is only an access point and a continuation of fragmentation of care. Not a huge value add. I can tell you with 100% certainty it's not worth $14B in the open market, but if you wanna bet on the further irrationality of the market be my guest
Didn't know ZM was HIPAA compliant. You've actually changed my mind on TDOC since I thought there wasn't another telemedicine play that's as used as TDOC. Been on the fence for a while, and now I'm off it. Thanks friend.
I’m still kicking myself for not buying it earlier just bc it was an obvious early meme stock but now it’s too run up. Anytime
Same. My price target was 125 around a month ago, but it never hit that. I don't think it's currently worth 181, so it'll have to wait.