Sir, you appear lost, this is a Wendy’s. You know what we do here right?

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Hey I have a data science background. This is good and entertaining fluff, but if you know what you're looking at, there are important things missing and some things that look good but don't make sense. I give him 4.8/5 for making it look important. For example: He has two time series (S&P500 and the bonds) and he compares them to many possible offsets. This is called cross-correlation analysis. It's a real thing, but it's also notorious for overfitting the data and showing spurious relationships if you misuse it like OP dies here. When you test many different offsets, you increase the probability of finding a high correlation *somewhere*, purely out of random chance. This is kind of like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row; it's impressive if you only flipped the coin 10 times, but much less exciting if you flipped it 10 million times. You were bound to get a 10-head steak at some point. An overfit predictor is one that performs very well on the historical data used to find it, but poorly on new, unseen data. If you select the single best lag based purely on the highest R-value from your historical test (precisely what OP did here), you risk overfitting to random noise that exists in the sample, but isn't truly predictive. And that's almost surely been done here and the validation should have been on showing that the model isn't overfit. To validate a model like that you wouldn't back-test (what OP does). Some things you could do are split the data into in and out of sample (e.g. make the model based on only the first X days in the series, and then judge it based on its ability to predict the data after day X). You should/could take steps to remove seasonality or trends within the time series first (which we already damn well know the stock market is seasonal, so him using untransformed values is most definitely increasing his calculated correlation). It would also be good to do bootstrapping to check statistical significance, instead of just p value. But it is very entertaining. OP probably also has a data background, to be knowing what to do to specifically torture the data this way.

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I wonder how many lowest effort memes we will have to endure over the next few days. Literally every sub has its variant with this image. Getting boring.

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If we are wrong we are FUCKED LMAO

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Fuck yeah baby let's go silver! I'm sitting on leaps and June calls. We could honestly hit 100 by June, I don't think people realize what is happening with silver.

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Are we already too late?   https://stocks.apple.com/symbol/UUUU That thing was below 6 heading into summer, spiked above 21, and has retreated a fair amount into the end of the year.  

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If we don’t watch, China will pull their own “OPEC” thing like we had done with oil in the 70’s.  

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My dca is around the same as you but I’m only at like 1/5th of your shares. Been buying since the pandemic when it was around $3 for a long time. I didn’t think we’d pop for another few years and was trying to accumulate more shares but we really blasted off this past year. Great job buying as much as you did. It’s a fucking cool company to follow.

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Calls on Tesla, always calls on Tesla We are not America anymore, we are Russia 2.0! No one actually buys shit but favors here because nothing is cheap except the data harvesting billboard in your living room!

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Deal hell is this. We talking about that 30year old momo rn???

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