>Terrible 2Y Auction: Biggest Tail In 3 Years, Dealers Highest Since 2022 Oops.

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Oh shit another one lmao The puffer's unique and distinctive natural defenses help compensate for its slow locomotion. It moves by combining pectoral, dorsal, anal, and caudal fin motions. This makes it highly maneuverable, but very slow, so a comparatively easy predation target. Its tail fin is mainly used as a rudder, but it can be used for a sudden evasive burst of speed that shows none of the care and precision of its usual movements.[14] The puffer's excellent eyesight, combined with this speed burst, is the first and most important defense against predators. [

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Cats climbing his giant cat tree and chasing his tail. Why cant I just do that bro

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🥭 making it clear to Iran that he caught the tiger by the tail. Who’s ready to handle more societal pain, Iran or the US? Lmao

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You know the funny thing, I wrote out the following painstainkly, and it was flagged by an LLM for various reasons and not allowed to post. I then produced some AI slop and voila. How did we get here, to the invariable collapse? Was it a sudden event? Was it the decades of deindustrialization, political corruption, and moral decay? Understanding the cause is important, but there's no time for that now. Some facts **The United States Armed Forces lack the military-logistical means to decisively defeat Iran, reopen Hormuz, or much-less achieve a modicum of firepower superiority against the Iranian state.** The targeting of American military infrastructure in the Gulf was a shock, and without that infrastructure we cannot decisively threaten the Iranians. The intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, air defense systems, air bases, and naval ports are meant to be a dagger in the back of Iran or any nation that may threaten the rich natural resources concentrated in that region. Without these assets, our only means of delivering firepower unto Iran is from Jordanian and Israeli airbases, and sorties from these bases are logistically expensive. Aircraft must be refueled over Iraq/Saudi Arabia, and we have a limited number of air refueling tankers which the Iranians are aggressively targeting. There is also an acute shortage of standoff munitions. A transition to mostly using gravity bombs, which we have in abundance, will dramatically increase that logistical tail, further reducing the firepower which can be delivered unto the Iranians. Of our two carriers in theater, one is in port because of a sudden fire which occurred, and another was forced over 1000KM away from the Iranian shoreline because of the very real threat of Irans standoff munitions. **America cannot win this war without a large-scale mobilization and years of resource allocation and expenditure. This will require a ground war.** So how did we blunder into this mess, and what does it mean for markets? To the first point; Key members of the executive are incompetent, and the military leaders of this nation are promoted through politics, not merit. The entire military establishment has turned into an incompetent bureaucracy. It is visible through every single chain of the complex. From acquisition of trillion dollar wonder weapons with none of the wonder to extremely outdated Cold War operational art built from the lessons of the Second World War, the entire system is glaringly broken. There is a fundamental point I need everyone to understand here before I continue; **This is not just a product of corruption. These people have truly drank the Kool-Aid.** The brass most likely dusted off a 30 year old operational plan, quickly revisited the axiomatic belief that American Airpower can do everything, and then probably wrapped it up in some stupid palantir/ai increases target finding. Combine that with the executive branches desire to prosecute this war, the reasons for which I will not opine, and you have the war which **ends the Empire.** To the second point; what this means for markets? This is the end of the international dollar system. This is the end of the long duration momentum trading. This is the end of the treasury market, hell this is the end of all dollar denominated debt markets. **If dollars cannot buy the Japanese factory owner the energy he needs for his factory, he will dump his dollars and no longer accept new ones. The Japanese man will then aggressively acquire whatever he must in order to get the energy. If he cannot get the energy, his factory closes down, and in either case, the unproductive American worker that does nothing but stare at excel sheets all day gets nothing, for his labor was ultimately useless to begin with.** I'm sure you have all seen the end of the dollar spiels from the likes of Ray Dalio and every bear. These people do not represent chicken little, but a build-up of negative events which have led up to this moment. The dollar rose to dominance internationally after the Second World War because America was left untouched with 50% of the Worlds GDP. If you want a claim on real manufactured goods, you acquire dollars. Couple that with our respect for private property and law, and it was a deal. We had a rough patch in the 70s, but shored it up by making the dollar a claim on Arab oil. All of these pillars are gone now. The dollar is not a claim on real manufactured goods, for America no longer manufactures anything except excel sheets and software slop. The dollar is no longer viewed as a respected claim since the seizure of Russian central bank assets. Finally, the dollar is no longer a claim on Arab oil because we can no longer militarily back its delivery. The dollar is dead internationally, what do we invest in? Understand, **This will not be a wealth transfer, but a wealth destruction.** All of the paper obligations built up since the 70s will melt away. This will not be the end of America, for it is a land of great natural wealth and, while questionable these days, human talent. Hell, this will ultimately be a good thing in the long term, as the financialization of the economy, and the extremely unproductive nature of it as such, will disappear. Now if you've gotten this far, what do we invest in? **Long term, invest in American companies which produce things the world needs, and which America has a comparative advantage in producing.** Think energy intensive, specifically natural gas derived, chemical industries. The oil and gas industry of America. Fertilizer companies. They dont really exist yet in the States, but capital intensive heavy industries which we have lost but will soon regain by necessity, not choice. On Hormuz being closed in the short term, this represents an acute shortage to not just oil and gas, but fertilizer. One third of the worlds synthetic fertilizers goes through the Straits, along with the LNG which makes even more of it in factories throughout the world. Nitrogen and Phosphate fertilizer will be extremely short, and there are only a few US based companies to invest in. Fertilizer is important as it feeds the world, and as such is extremely demand inelastic. US based companies are insulated from the Hormuz closure, and barring export bans they will shoot up dramatically as there is very little to buy in the fertilizer space and there is now very little fertilizer globally. For my own positioning, I have a large position in ConocoPhillips which I have built up over the last 2 and a half years (I started buying October of 2023), and I have purchased 200 calls on Mosaic (Sept 18th expiry 35 strike), a US based fertilizer companies. I'm expecting a 20x on that position at $60 a share. I also have 5 calls on CF Industries, another US based fertilizer company, 120 strike June 18 expiry. Oil moves first, then nitrogen (CF), and finally phosphate (MOS). I'm expecting the move on Mosaic to occur sometime in mid April, and those three positions represent my entire portfolio. The bankrupter in Chief will delay bankruptcy proceedings as long as he can, but the shock to the system here is going to create a rapid unraveling. Buy US based producers of real assets that the world needs. Right now all we're good for is oil, gas, and natural gas derived industrial products (certain fertilizers, polyolefins, ect).

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It signals his current intention to tuck tail and run away. The market likes that.

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His logic is sound. Trump is just a dog that his tail netanyahu is wagging. And Netanyahu is anything but pro peace

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Yeah this is definitely some tail wagging the dog shit. Being held hostage by a country that isn’t afraid of total annihilation is not a good place to be. We would have been better off if the whole thing got published by the last administration regardless of the harm it may have done - better that than this.

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🥭 caught the tiger by the tail and now he desperately wants to let go lmao. Bb NathanYahoo played him like a bitch.

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