Didn’t realize we were that low on the SPR, fair enough. I might buy some back month futures

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I strongly disagree because that assumes immense demand destruction at prices that have not historically caused demand destruction. And we know demand destruction isn’t there yet because the US is on pace to deplete the entire SPR in approximately 2-3 months. If oil has topped, it is not a natural result of market forces, but the result of BOJ and Bessent interventions scaring bulls and institutional buyers out of the market. If that is the case, that’s actually worse for the broader market because the current oil prices do not encourage further production and we need to increase production if we’re going to avoid catastrophe. To make matters worse, UAE’s exit from OPEC makes more drilling all the more unattractive because it will likely result in an oil glut 1-2 years after this is over. I’ve seen lots of traders post bearish oil sentiments and I get the sense that their theses are based on charts rather than the physical reality. Since oil powers the entire economy and there are over 1 billion missing barrels, with that number increasing each day, my thesis is that the physical reality will force prices higher, no matter what lines traders draw on their charts.

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well yeah we know the govt is draining the SPR to suppress front month CL

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