The U.S. can secure the straight of Hormuz. The U.S. has always been able to secure the straight of Hormuz. We have the capability. And doughboys on Iranian soil basically ensures it. Shock, at first, but boots on the ground evaporates any uncertainty in the long run. What is going on now is stalling. If we take the heads at their word (they actually haven’t said it equivocally, if you’ve been listening) that nuclear capabilities are gone, and the point of concern is the straight, opening it requires risk. A DDG getting struck, 300 lives lost, is a very real possibility. And it would just have to be done, opening the sea lane, in the name of national security. He doesn’t want to do that. That’s the taco. Sending the fleet will happen, however, if the Iranians don’t capitulate. He’s making the best of the situation, stalling the market, giving time for as much bombing to take place, reducing risk, more negotiating, and the ships will go through. Three weeks

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hate to be a conspiracy theorist but does anyone else feel like they gonna pull an attack on american soil just to bank on the drop after pumping it up on claims of war over

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I guess the real wake up call would have to be something that's irreversible and un tacoable. Like if anyone launches a attack on us soil or if we actually nuke someone.

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There is no competition in the market. China has completely stopped exports of fertilizer, Morocco can no longer produce any phosphorous as they no longer have access to sulfur at all from the Middle East. Sulfur is not that easy to export logistically, and Mosaic has access to low cost production through natural gas feedstock in the US. Mosaic is as insulated as it gets in terms of input costs, and the product will rise as well, and farmers globally will have to pay the price, because many farmers cannot go a season without applying any phosphorous to their soil. This will then drive up agr commodities, its a real inflattionary chain which stems from much of the worlds energy now being offline.

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Can an entire planting season occur with no phosphate applied to the soil? My thought here as well is this is more of a global play, as it'll be much more short globally during the later planting seasons of the global south then it is right now in the states. I also think agr commodity futures will rise enough to be commensurate with the rise in fertilizer prices.

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If there's an indication that this war is going to get way worse and last way longer because U.S. marines are actually landing on Iranian soil...puts. If they don't, calls. :)

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