Some real 2002 RuneScape Classic world 7 plate pure castle pking right there

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Hey I have a data science background. This is good and entertaining fluff, but if you know what you're looking at, there are important things missing and some things that look good but don't make sense. I give him 4.8/5 for making it look important. For example: He has two time series (S&P500 and the bonds) and he compares them to many possible offsets. This is called cross-correlation analysis. It's a real thing, but it's also notorious for overfitting the data and showing spurious relationships if you misuse it like OP dies here. When you test many different offsets, you increase the probability of finding a high correlation *somewhere*, purely out of random chance. This is kind of like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row; it's impressive if you only flipped the coin 10 times, but much less exciting if you flipped it 10 million times. You were bound to get a 10-head steak at some point. An overfit predictor is one that performs very well on the historical data used to find it, but poorly on new, unseen data. If you select the single best lag based purely on the highest R-value from your historical test (precisely what OP did here), you risk overfitting to random noise that exists in the sample, but isn't truly predictive. And that's almost surely been done here and the validation should have been on showing that the model isn't overfit. To validate a model like that you wouldn't back-test (what OP does). Some things you could do are split the data into in and out of sample (e.g. make the model based on only the first X days in the series, and then judge it based on its ability to predict the data after day X). You should/could take steps to remove seasonality or trends within the time series first (which we already damn well know the stock market is seasonal, so him using untransformed values is most definitely increasing his calculated correlation). It would also be good to do bootstrapping to check statistical significance, instead of just p value. But it is very entertaining. OP probably also has a data background, to be knowing what to do to specifically torture the data this way.

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Never a dull moment in WSB. The fact that, accordingly to your analysis, got a correlation around 0.4 to the real thing is fucking funny.

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RuneScape is a popular MMORPG that's been around since 2001. Players can explore a fantasy world, complete quests, and level up skills. It's got a huge community and a quirky economy, which is why some people find its bond prices interesting for predicting real-world markets.

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I am glad I am not the only one who drifted here from that pit-hole. But if anything, its own logic is at least testable, applying skill based rules to real-world logic.

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See, Mom, RuneScape does utilize value in real life.

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Think about this for a second. It's already too small of a sample size to begin with, but the OP concludes that by decreasing the sample size further post 2022, it's more proof that his findings are real. Check out this article to increase your ability to see through BS [https://www.statology.org/correlation-does-not-imply-causation-examples/](https://www.statology.org/correlation-does-not-imply-causation-examples/)

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What a shit post. I applaud that regards exist in such force that this post is a real thing. Rather than learning about the market, or even just…going outside, OP spent time to build an A+ quality shit post complete with graphs and everything. Very entertaining. I feel bad for your family, obviously. But very entertaining.

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It does, many real uses. But like gold industrial demand has nothing to do with its price and most of its demand.

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Just finished watching the Netflix boxing event from last night. Could they not convince a single real celebrity besides burt kreischer to make an on screen appearance? Did anyone else even attend? Funny shit.

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