# The $120 thesis in 7 moves **0) Sanity check the target.** At **$120/share** and \~**729–736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85–90B** market cap. That’s the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **1) Macro door re-opens.** Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes in—more would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **2) Founder/“product CEO” reboot = rerating fuel.** You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). That’s credibility + a clearly stated “**AI-powered real-estate platform**” mandate—exactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

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and I don't know what expiry means fully? I bought stock. Chat gpt is letting me fantasize about 120. # The $120 thesis in 7 moves **0) Sanity check the target.** At **$120/share** and \~**729–736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85–90B** market cap. That’s the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **1) Macro door re-opens.** Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes in—more would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **2) Founder/“product CEO” reboot = rerating fuel.** You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). That’s credibility + a clearly stated “**AI-powered real-estate platform**” mandate—exactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **3) The business mix shifts from steel to software.** OPEN’s own words: it’s evolving to “**serve many more sellers and capture capital-light revenue streams**” via agent-led distribution and marketplace-style options (think instant offer *plus* listing rails, referrals, and B2B buy-side pipes). That’s margin mix shifting from low-teens gross to **software/marketplace-like** take-rates on GMV. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

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