UNH on the path to $380

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OPEN 3 days ago? Trash. Not selling that beforehand took some balls. OPEN now that Rabois is back, right before rates cuts and an American credit extravaganza is about to begin? Very different. Real estate has always been a territoried industry in the US. That makes it extremely fragmented; 1.5 million real estate agents working for 300k+ brokerages. Even counting mega firms with over 20k total agents, there are like ten. No one can consolidate market share, because all these agents and companies are constantly at war with each other. I can see, with a massive amount of tech industry brainpower and a fuckton of VC capital, a path for a company with a radical modernization plan to usurp the industry by taking out most of the human elements. I sure as hell didn't think Opendoor was capable of pulling anything like it off, especially not without the right brains and the aforementioned money. But now, I can kind of see a path, and at the end of the path is a *fuckin donko amount of money*. There's $2T worth of houses sold each year, and you can hog a lot of that pie and keep more of the margin with robo agents.

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I switched from half a liter of vodka to just two Natty Daddys. I think I'm on the good path now

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**5) The math to $120 (one credible path).** * **Marketplace/agent-led GMV**: assume OPEN builds a national seller funnel and intermediates **\~$150B GMV** within a few years (a mid-single-digit share of a \~$2T+ existing-home market—i.e., not crazy if their top-of-funnel wins). With a blended **\~1.5–2.0% take-rate**, that’s **$2.3–3.0B high-margin revenue**. * **Core iBuyer flywheel**: run a **leaner balance-sheet** book at **$40–60B resale GMV** with **4–5% contribution margin**, yielding **$1.6–3.0B** of contribution profit before Opex. * **Attach** (title/escrow, warranties, marketplace ads, partner rev share): **$0.5–1.0B** revenue if attach rates rise with an agent-led ecosystem. Put together, you can plausibly frame **$5–7B revenue** with **20–25% EBITDA margins** (because more of that revenue is capital-light). That’s **$1–1.8B EBITDA** *before* any mania. A platform rerating at **25–35× EBITDA** or **12–15× sales** (for a period) gets you into the **$60–100B** EV zone—i.e., **share price with a “1”**. (Yes: execution heavy. Yes: possible with this mix.) *Anchors for realism:* size of the US resale market, the just-reported contribution/EBITDA turn, and OPEN’s explicit “capital-light” push. [National Association of REALTORS®+1](https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **6) The squeeze-y accelerant.** Right now, shorts still sit at **\~23–26% of float** (Aug 29–31 print). If borrow remains available this stays momentum-led; but **if** CTB tightens while the story improves, you get **forced buyers** on top of retail “Open Army” call-flow. That’s how valuation overshoots *toward* $120 before fundamentals fully catch up. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **7) Why this isn’t fantasy.** * The **team** just changed in exactly the way a marketplace pivot needs. [GlobeNewswire](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **macro** is finally blowing the right way (rates). [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **model** already printed positive Adj. EBITDA in a rough quarter, proving it can work *at small scale*. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Scale the mix toward capital-light fees and keep underwriting tight, and the market will happily pay tomorrow’s multiple on today’s slope.

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Hey NVDA, maybe don’t choose a path of your own…for ONCE!?

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They will if the fed starts making cuts because it thinks it will help the labor market. Producers will continue to cut labor in an effort to meet margins as tarrifs become too heavy to bear. Smaller producers will drop out the market because they will not be agile enough to off set the increase cost and deal with lower margins. The big boys left will then engage in higher prices as supply dropped, basic monopolistic behavior. The fed will continue to cut rates to help the labor market as small producers go out of business and big companies still won't hire because of uncertainty in cost of goods because of tarrifs. Labor is the easiest input to quickly hire or get rid of, and the quickest way to cut cost without really impacting output much. This is how you get runaway inflation from tarrifs because it will impact many variables that lead to higher and higher prices due to so many externalities. If it was just a 2% tarrif on very select goods you would be right, it's like a sales tax. But when it's sweeping tarrifs that impact so many industries and companies like Walmart have shown they cannot even absorb the tarrifs or be agile enough to deal with them, it's pretty obvious this shit is going to cascade a lot worse than what we see now. We can then get stuck in a cycle trying to offset the awful effects of tarrifs on producer bottom lines and labor marketa with monetary policy that leads to higher and higher inflation. We are basically at step 1 of this and if the fed starts cutting well we are on the path to runaway inflation. These are the broadest applied tariffs we have ever seen from a world economic superpower. We are in uncharted territory here for what this means long term for the economy. Normal tarrifs hurt growth, these are much broader and bigger. Producers are notoriously conservative during economic uncertainty. A lot of pieces of the recipe for huge economic downturn or runaway inflation are on the board.

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I am open to open opening a path to $10

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Oh so weirdly it didnt matter prior to that to crash few of them already in Poland past year. Airspace now beeing monitored by several things, and drones were recorded passing the border clearly, and their path recorded way prior they entered Polish space. Its official response from goverment - it was not a mistake and it was aimed. And Russians as with every missile and drone landing where it should not say “nuh huh not ours”, https://www.reddit.com/r/poland/s/EEDwdM0f96

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CSCO has a very similar path of growth over the last year that ORCL had before it became a millionaire maker. The calls are incredibly inexpensive. I’m going for it. CSCO has the blueprint.

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Coworkers have 0 respect for my time as I continue down the path of my trading journey 😤

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