If I said that 3-4 rate cuts would happen this year and investors put money in the market in anticipation of those rate cuts, then later turned around and said that the cuts may not happen after all, wouldn't it be completely reasonable for the investors to take that money back out? I don't get your point here... nothing suggests that this is just a simple correction, it's a re-evaluation of the overall market and economy for the intermediate future. You can also see this in bond yields that have skyrocketed over the past couple weeks. Also, earnings don't mean shit without good guidance. Look at the earnings that have been posted in the past couple weeks: JPM, LULU, NFLX, TSM, SMCI just to name a few. The problem today was that SMCI did not give guidance on their expected numbers like they did previously when things were good especially since it came in right after TSM. This led investors to draw the conclusion that the entire semiconductor industry might be hitting a slowdown, which caused today's tech selloff. Maybe people will have more hope for AMD or MSFT, but that won't prop up the entire S&P500 because AAPL has poor expectations and NVDA doesn't report till June. I'm not saying there won't be a bounce next week. I'm just saying your logic is wrong. The market has dropped harder than this in a 7 day period before (it's only down \~4% since last Friday compared to \~8% down Jan 2022 or \~7% Aug 2022), it can happen again.

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- The only stock you discussed was TSLA and based on your own words - puts are in play ! - Agreed, some good tech ERs this week (MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOG) but even with good ER, dont think they gonna move the market needle much. But then you have a boatload of companies that will fall even with good EPS but poor guidance, etc. case in point (NFLX, TSM) - Almost 1 TRILLION of market cap was ~~evaporated~~ redirected to other investments. Case in point, no rate cuts till 2025 prolly means less growth. - Production is expected to decelerate from last quarter’s 3.4% level, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projecting 2.9% GDP growth - 10% Market correction based on previous ones puts SPY around \~475. We still have ways to go and on top of that elections, overvaluation, inflation, wars, corporate greed and consumer spendthrift makes this crash a little more unpredictable.

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NFLX dropped because they announced they will no longer report subscriber numbers in their ER. This spooked investors that the subscriber numbers going forward will be poor but in reality, the way NFLX plans on building income, subscriber numbers won’t be the best way to articulate. NVDA dropped today because SMCI did not give a pre look at their earnings like they usually do. That sell off caused NVDA to sell off which caused the indexes to hit sell off triggers. It took a while, but, QQQ broke through the 1.5% trading boundary which it has been bound to previously. Most of this quarter will probably be a sell the news event. Personally, i’d run short butterfly spreads to just make some money - like the stocks are going to move so you can make money without caring about the direction (in case they do go up). Personally, I think it’s better than a straddle as there’s a smaller move required but profits are capped.

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Gap up then sell off. Semi's disappointed. High expectations for earnings. What happened to NFLX will happen to the rest of the fab 4.

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>After rethinking what happened to NFLX, I have decided to clear all long positions and wait until the market stabilizes Wow that's a really long post just to say "imma little bitch"

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With all the war tension, I don't think earning will get market back upward, most likely it will go choppy sideways. I think Tesla will go down Msft will make profit but not good enough Tsm and nflx made profit but look what happens. Can't say about google

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Better than my -100% on NFLX and SPY

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Yeah the more people play with options the more money MM is making selling worthless puts and calls which are priced so crazy that nobody really wins. My nflx put was $1572 for 580 put may expiry. Even though Netflix tanked to $560 the value was only $2400. It’s getting harder and harder to find decent options to buy unless you get a massive move like NVDA had today but

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You make excellent points and I very much appreciate the reasoned response. I think in 2023 Office revenue was barely above Azure - I wouldn't be surprised if office is #2 now. But if I understand AMZN and MSFT comments on cloud growth, it is still growing, but the key issue is that it is doing so more slowly. There was a large move to the cloud in the past decade and MSFT/AMZN benefited significantly. The growth will likely continue, but the stock is priced (again, on a historical basis which might be flawed) on the premise that the user/revenue growth will continue at the same pace. Why do I find that hard to believe? Azure was released around 2010 when MSFTs market cap was approx. $200 Billion. Azure now has almost 1 billion users - including over 85% of fortune 500 companies. Essentially, everyone who can use AZURE is on the platform - And this very much explains why it has gained over $2.8 Trillion dollars in market value over the past decade. Any further gains will have to be through capturing other companies market share - which comes with margin compression. There is only so much pie left to grow. Not to ramble (too late?), but it reminds me of Apple. It's easy to keep growing at insane levels, when you have an amazing product, that zero people own (circa 2008) - But eventually, everyone who wants an iPhone, has an iPhone (\~1.5 billion users today). Sure, there are replacement cycles, but that won't give you the same growth as literally adding 20-30 million actual new users every quarter (I guess there's always INDIA if they can get themselves out of poverty) And, that's why you see them trying to pivot to "services" to extract more $ from their existing base. It's the nature of market saturation. Even today, NFLX told everyone they aren't going to report new users anymore. They know they are starting to hit that diminishing returns level. After their password crackdown, it is highly unlikely they will be able to continue the exponential user growth they have experienced in the past. And so, they will try to extract more $ from their existing users through price raises/ads. Going forward, they would rather be judged on revenue growth, because they know they aren't going to be able to shock analysts with 20 million news users every quarter anymore. I guess we will find out in a few days whether MSFT was able to add a significant amount of new customers while not losing margin. They certainly might.

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$785 puts closed up 20,645%. The highest NFLX put closed up 117% for comparison.

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