> People can vibe code something like Intuit or Team
People can't even vibe code those. They claim to do a lot of shit but where are these alternatives? Why are people still buying Quickbooks? Why am I getting more MS Teams invites than ever before?
Agreed that AI is not at this point a threat to Microsoft.
The bigger threat I see MS facing is international growth. With American software and financial services recently being used as part of sanctions package against European citizens including ICC judges and several MPs in European countries, they're going to move their lazy assess and work on domestic solutions that cannot be used as leverage against them. Also if US is threatening to invade European territory, it's not a good idea to have government systems running on US controlled software and cloud.
Microsoft, among others, have been trying to alleviate this by moving European data to European data centers but that only "solves" to some extent for data residency. When asked, they all admin, US law still applies including US request for data hosted in those supposedly European data centers.
Some markets will have no alternatives (Africa, also fast growing) but the ones who can will try to go native.