Looking thru the r/apple sub and Mac rumors, Iphone preorders shipments are slipping to October currently within 40 minutes of sales. Looking into getting $240 calls a month out. Let’s see how it goes

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**5) The math to $120 (one credible path).** * **Marketplace/agent-led GMV**: assume OPEN builds a national seller funnel and intermediates **\~$150B GMV** within a few years (a mid-single-digit share of a \~$2T+ existing-home market—i.e., not crazy if their top-of-funnel wins). With a blended **\~1.5–2.0% take-rate**, that’s **$2.3–3.0B high-margin revenue**. * **Core iBuyer flywheel**: run a **leaner balance-sheet** book at **$40–60B resale GMV** with **4–5% contribution margin**, yielding **$1.6–3.0B** of contribution profit before Opex. * **Attach** (title/escrow, warranties, marketplace ads, partner rev share): **$0.5–1.0B** revenue if attach rates rise with an agent-led ecosystem. Put together, you can plausibly frame **$5–7B revenue** with **20–25% EBITDA margins** (because more of that revenue is capital-light). That’s **$1–1.8B EBITDA** *before* any mania. A platform rerating at **25–35× EBITDA** or **12–15× sales** (for a period) gets you into the **$60–100B** EV zone—i.e., **share price with a “1”**. (Yes: execution heavy. Yes: possible with this mix.) *Anchors for realism:* size of the US resale market, the just-reported contribution/EBITDA turn, and OPEN’s explicit “capital-light” push. [National Association of REALTORS®+1](https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **6) The squeeze-y accelerant.** Right now, shorts still sit at **\~23–26% of float** (Aug 29–31 print). If borrow remains available this stays momentum-led; but **if** CTB tightens while the story improves, you get **forced buyers** on top of retail “Open Army” call-flow. That’s how valuation overshoots *toward* $120 before fundamentals fully catch up. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **7) Why this isn’t fantasy.** * The **team** just changed in exactly the way a marketplace pivot needs. [GlobeNewswire](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **macro** is finally blowing the right way (rates). [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **model** already printed positive Adj. EBITDA in a rough quarter, proving it can work *at small scale*. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Scale the mix toward capital-light fees and keep underwriting tight, and the market will happily pay tomorrow’s multiple on today’s slope.

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# The $120 thesis in 7 moves **0) Sanity check the target.** At **$120/share** and \~**729–736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85–90B** market cap. That’s the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **1) Macro door re-opens.** Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes in—more would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **2) Founder/“product CEO” reboot = rerating fuel.** You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). That’s credibility + a clearly stated “**AI-powered real-estate platform**” mandate—exactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

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and I don't know what expiry means fully? I bought stock. Chat gpt is letting me fantasize about 120. # The $120 thesis in 7 moves **0) Sanity check the target.** At **$120/share** and \~**729–736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85–90B** market cap. That’s the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **1) Macro door re-opens.** Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes in—more would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **2) Founder/“product CEO” reboot = rerating fuel.** You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). That’s credibility + a clearly stated “**AI-powered real-estate platform**” mandate—exactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **3) The business mix shifts from steel to software.** OPEN’s own words: it’s evolving to “**serve many more sellers and capture capital-light revenue streams**” via agent-led distribution and marketplace-style options (think instant offer *plus* listing rails, referrals, and B2B buy-side pipes). That’s margin mix shifting from low-teens gross to **software/marketplace-like** take-rates on GMV. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

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Yeah mf they released the 8 dollar Big Mac meal yesterday where you been

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I like mac and cheese in my peas

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I like peas in my Mac n cheese

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They issue guidelines for mortgage debt for banks to lend, and buy loans funded by banks like Wells and BAC, then bundle the loans and sell them to investors. Basically if you hear the term 'conforming loan' it's either from Fannie Mae FNMA or Freddie Mac FMCC. They have been in a conservatorship since 2008, and are about to be 'released' Way more info available than the snippet I provided. It's worth a read.

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Who else about to pay off their Big Mac loan tomorrow after flipping 2 Klarna shares 😎😎

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How can a 700B Mac move like this, Jesus

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