The thing with Batteries and Software is that the lead is temporary since their is a finite amount of what you can actually do at this point before you run out of room to squeeze the economies of scale. To me I think large multinational corps are going to have issues in a few years as countries start trying to encourage their own manufacturing instead of relying on foreign companies.

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I don't have a totally clear understanding of what an AI slowdown means. If it is only regulation to supervise the development of AI, it doesn't worry me. But if it implies fewer language models and limits their massive adoption, evidently that could lead to a drop in hyperscalers' investment,

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automakers in the US directly lead to 5-7% of the entire US workforce It’s a major source of decent white collar middle class, and blue collar union jobs. There is no way to compete on Chinese pricing without millions of people taking massive paycuts and going into poverty or switching fields entirely. Never mind that China does not exact play fair..(who does). But in this example… A US company who provides auto parts and tooling is forced spend hundreds of thousands a year on software licenses. In China they can just download it and not pay without risk of repercussions. I personally had a coworker who went to China on a business trip and had the Chinese counterpart put a cad software on his laptop that flagged once it reached the US and got the company sued for 6 figures. Wages and cost of business are much higher in the US. The two cannot compete on an even playing field. The only thing the US can do is protect its manufacturing industry by not allowing Chinese cars to be sold here. Manufacturing is a critical field. In times of war or general world termoil it is critical to be able to produce your own items required for your population to live. Destroying an entire manufacturing base to get cheap cars is short sighted.

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I always point to watches. Chinese watchmaking has caught up to the Swiss/German/Japanese offerings at most price points up to the entry level luxury tier. Even above that you have non-Aliexpress brands that have real atelier workmanship. But, people understand this vast price undercutting is only possible through copying of designs and underpaid labor. They'd rather reward the manufacturer that actually developed the design and have the real thing, the parent or ur-design watches, instead of the homages. But, Swiss/Japanese/German watchmakers have always been excellent while American automotive industry is so far inferior that allowing Chinese cars into the market would cripple these companies and lead to mass job loss. But the incentive to improve in a safe environment doesn't exist until that happens so it's a catch-22.

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Competition is always good because it generally will always lead to more competitive innovation and more competitive prices... But when China is involved things get a little iffy.

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Hoover's wiki page offers a bleak outlook at our current situation. Trump could have learned a bit from him. "Already bullish stock market climbed even higher on Hoover's accession. This optimism concealed several threats to sustained U.S. economic growth, including a persistent farm crisis, a saturation of consumer goods like automobiles, and growing income inequality. Most dangerous of all to the economy was excessive speculation that had raised stock prices far beyond their value. Some regulators and bankers had warned Coolidge and Hoover that a failure to curb speculation would lead to "one of the greatest financial catastrophes that this country has ever seen,"

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Skill and luck mix to be sure. But the problem is people underestimate luck as a major contributor to success. The problem with “successful” people is that you can’t take them as an example overall that proves whether it’s luck or skill. Because of survivorship bias. You have to take a look at these people BEFORE success and see if their tendencies lead to this. Warren buffet could easily meet the definition of survivorship bias. Read fooled by randomness. They talk about Buffett specifically. (Or don’t if you don’t want to learn about this stuff)

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There is no break.  Only losses and the illusion of making money. Both Options AND Stocks. Unless you get lucky, nothing good ever happens, even if you put less in or take your time. It's either a fast spiral down or a slow decent. Both places lead to -99% port.

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Looks like I was right. Tried putting you on some game. Can only lead the horse to the trough

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Way too bullish in here - early cheers often lead to crying later

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