It will never be simple...I look at five things when I'm bored: CME group has an Economic Release Calendar with factors that might influence the market....I look at a list of other assets to see where capital is flowing, and they include (VIX, GLD, and TLT)...then research the earnings dates of the top ten companies in the sp500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, META, TSLA, BRK.B and JPM currently)... then I glance over news headlines and social media groups. You'll typically find something in that lineup that is moving the market. Right now, I know you and a bunch of other people are wondering "why line go down?"....sometimes the answer isn't obvious.....sometimes it's as simple as looking at where SPY started to initially dip from all time highs, observe what happened around that time (FOMC meeting in this case, October 29th) and realize what JPOW said that scared investors ("interest rate cuts in December aren't a given" pretty much every reporter kept hackling him about that statement and he kept telling them the same old same old data dependent yada yada yada....that little statement has caused the market to digest more than expected pain, or at least take cuts off of the valuations metrics that they have been using). Many will say a pullback was imminent due to valuations, but if you look at SPY YTD and open some indicators, you'll notice that we're above the 200dma and bouncing around the upper lines of the keltner channels all the way up since early April. Middle of the KC is 666 for SPY so I would expect us to bounce up off that if the trend continues, or if we break then I'm seeing around 650, and if we go below that, back to 610 territory where the 200dma is at. That would be a normal and healthy mean reversion in my opinion, but I got blown out selling covered calls at the worst possible time, so I just adjust sails and I will never do such things ever again. If I'm scared, I just allocate more to short term treasuries USFR and my little batch of Gold coins keeps me emotionally stable.

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