Interactive Brokers (IBKR) comments on Wallstreetbets, Twitch and 4chan

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IBKR

Interactive Brokers

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About Interactive Brokers

Interactive Brokers Group affiliates provide automated trade execution and custody of securities, commodities and foreign exchange around the clock on over 135 markets in numerous countries and currencies, from a single IBKR Integrated Investment Account to clients worldwide. The company services individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, financial advisors and introducing brokers. Interactive Brokers Group's four decades of focus on technology and automation has enabled them to equip clients with a uniquely sophisticated platform to manage their investment portfolios. The company strives to provide clients with advantageous execution prices and trading, risk and portfolio management tools, research facilities and investment products, all at low or no cost, positioning them to achieve superior returns on investments.

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but generally yes it was accident, IBKR was doing some weird shit in the morning and bought 1dte call "at market" meaning at the very top, did not see it was filled

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The CME FedWatch is based on Futures Contracts. This one is ZQU6. You can trade those at many brokers probably, at IBKR you just search ZQ and choose the month. The liquidity is very good. However, you can't just bet on a specific decision with the futures, you bet on average effective federal funds rate for the rest of September. It seems that based on the Polymarket predictions and my rough quick calculations the "fair price" of the contract is 96.2675 vs current mid point of 96.2638. ZQ has a multiplier of $4,167 per point so you can "arbitrage" about $15/contract. Subtract broker fees and Polymarket fees/slippage on thousands of contracts that you'll have to buy and you're left with maybe few bucks per contract. And also you have to fill all orders on Poly or you'll not be fully hedged so if there is low liquidity in the 50bps hike market for example then you're fucked. But you can do it if you want.

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