Investing 5 b into intc for a collab that may or may not pan out apparently offsets China ban. Nvda can invest in many companies, each time boosting its stock and the other companies many times more than the investment amount. Another Infinite money glitch found.
If where me I would get one A- or two B contracts for mid-large caps - slight ITM - 14+ DTE if run flat for a while, you don't burn so bad, leave the contracts do their thing. Learn what went so wrong, take a break from volatile speculative stock at the moment, go for smaller % but more secure contracts, even at 15% weekly over 1k with discipline and commitment money will chase you. mitigate risk and grow small but steady. Lost 7k past month on one bad trade for me, now is up, but I needed to release the funds left - now I decided a trategy to make it work novice level, it has been a happy month. Or you can enjoy your life out of the stock market.
I think he's saying that the unemployment rates recently (e.g. past decade-ish, besides Covid era) are pretty low compared to the unemployment rates over the past 75 years or so. [Looking at the unemployment rates starting from 1948](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000024) reveals that even though unemployment is currently rising, it's fairly low in the grand scheme of things.
His argument is probably something like "imagine how shit everything would be if we go back to 5%+ being pretty typical, things are already not good"
p.s. didn't use an older graph since (a) hard to get a clean graph and (b) the great depression really screws with the visual lol
I'm expecting inflation to go on a rip from here.
a.) JPow mentioned that customers aren't bearing the brunt of tariff costs; that means there's a lot more tariff costs they're gonna be hit with. Asking businesses to eat margin costs is like asking to fuck their wives. They're gonna pass the buck as soon as they can, and now that the "keep inflation low to get rate cut conditions" thing is done, they're gonna start squeezing the consumer soon.
b.) Tariff can't be calculated as a one-time inflationary event because they *keep fucking changing*. Mexico's and China's are slated to go up in October and November. De minimis exemptions just ended a few weeks ago, and the last day to get goods to port before 50% India tariffs kick in is tomorrow. All of the data metrics we run on are lagging indicators; our last PCE data was from July, before tariffs even kicked back in. We haven't even seen what this shit's effects are yet, and with tariff rates in constant flux we can't predict what they'll be.
c.) The whole point of rate cuts is to loosen lending, and by the mechanics of fractional reserve banking, that means hundreds of billions of dollars are about to be made out of thin air. Lowering rates is, itself, inflationary. And with everyone in risk-off mode, it's about to be a credit-spree extravaganza in the US. All these expensive AI datacenters and investment promises are about to get financed. Households in the "barely priced out" on mortgages are about to get upgraded to the "barely afford it" group, and house prices are likely to keep rising (even though they barely started falling this week due to natural supply/demand). Shit's about to get more expensive, and the plan's to free up credit so everyone can borrow their way through it.
All of the conditions are setting up so that, when inflation *does* hit, it sucker punches us in the nose and knees us in the nuts. We won't even have this month's metric numbers until the end of October. Everyone's gonna have to run on vibes, and the vibes are gonna get weird.