I work in a medium sized semiconductor fab and we inked a deal to provide chips for Nvidia data centers a few months ago

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Or China simply announcing their own fab processes, improvements to AI software, or more advanced chips. No violence needed. We saw a 20% crash when (seemingly illegitimate) DeepSeek was announced. You think this can’t/wont happen again?

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No catalysts 🇨🇳👾🇹🇼 ? The entire AI, GPU infrastructure is resting on TSMC and subsequently the security of Taiwan. Arizona (US based) fab, Samsung, and from my understanding all other chip makers, are a significant ways away from producing advanced 4nm- chips, especially at scale. Yes, black swan event that would lead to the destruction of global sovereignty. We are also restricting the flow of advanced chips to China. In no way do I hope this happens, but In my eyes probably a smart move by China if they want to dominate compute.

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37% of SPY is the fab 7, this will end well

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I'd certainly never put all my eggs in a company that can't make anything without TSMC, when all signs point to China preparing to attack Taiwan in the next two years with 80-90% of that production and the latest nodes all being made in Taiwan, along with competition in the queue with Apple, AMD and others, but you do you. There's overvalued and then there's just playing with fire when the whole house of cards relies on a single point of failure (Samsung yields suck and Intel is still lost in the fab space).

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80% of SPY stocks are down today, goes to show the fab 7 weighting is great until it isnt

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If $NVDA GTC was the top of the AI bubble that would be fab

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Tesla is the only fab 7 that can bomb earnings and pump

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