I didnât buy at 0.7 my average was between $0.9 and $1.50. The main logic then was that they were close to being delisted but wouldnât be if they could maintain $1. Activist trading. Found Eric Jackson early before he started to get a bit crazy (clearly worked)
# The $120 thesis in 7 moves
**0) Sanity check the target.**
At **$120/share** and \~**729â736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85â90B** market cap. Thatâs the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**1) Macro door re-opens.**
Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes inâmore would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**2) Founder/âproduct CEOâ reboot = rerating fuel.**
You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). Thatâs credibility + a clearly stated â**AI-powered real-estate platform**â mandateâexactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
New CEO is the ex Shopify COO of 6 years. Two founders rejoined the board. Eric Wu and Keith Rabois. 41 million dollar injection through Khosla Ventures at a private offering. New CEO gets paid $1 salary and gets stock unlocked at certain price targets with the highest lock being at $33.
Do you think these three dudes would join a company thatâs going back down to mere cents?
Personally I believe Eric Jackson that this thing is going to $82.
Too many tailwinds and catalysts ahead and itâs got a cult like following.
and I don't know what expiry means fully? I bought stock.
Chat gpt is letting me fantasize about 120.
# The $120 thesis in 7 moves
**0) Sanity check the target.**
At **$120/share** and \~**729â736M** shares out, OPEN = **\~$85â90B** market cap. Thatâs the bar we have to clear with fundamentals + narrative. [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/opendoor/shares-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**1) Macro door re-opens.**
Mortgage rates just broke lower to **\~6.35%**, the biggest weekly drop in a year (Freddie Mac). When financing thawed in other cycles, **transactions** (not prices) recovered first. If existing-home sales grind up from \~**4.0M SAAR** toward **5.0M+**, you expand the pond OPEN fishes inâmore would-be sellers, more inventory, more spreads, more fees. [Freddie Mac+1](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**2) Founder/âproduct CEOâ reboot = rerating fuel.**
You just swapped in **Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO)** as CEO, with **Keith Rabois (chair)** and **Eric Wu** back, plus **$40M** insider cash (Wu + Khosla). Thatâs credibility + a clearly stated â**AI-powered real-estate platform**â mandateâexactly the kind of story the market will pay up for *if* execution follows. [GlobeNewswire+1](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
**3) The business mix shifts from steel to software.**
OPENâs own words: itâs evolving to â**serve many more sellers and capture capital-light revenue streams**â via agent-led distribution and marketplace-style options (think instant offer *plus* listing rails, referrals, and B2B buy-side pipes). Thatâs margin mix shifting from low-teens gross to **software/marketplace-like** take-rates on GMV. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
If you read the original DD and actually listened to Eric Jackson, the stock actually was significantly undervalued, had a bunch of clearly bullish catalysts upcoming (one huge one still yet to come) so that's reason enough to inspire confidence. There's a lot of shit-posts too but if you don't like that, maybe check out /r/investing