CTB is now up to 950%

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**5) The math to $120 (one credible path).** * **Marketplace/agent-led GMV**: assume OPEN builds a national seller funnel and intermediates **\~$150B GMV** within a few years (a mid-single-digit share of a \~$2T+ existing-home market—i.e., not crazy if their top-of-funnel wins). With a blended **\~1.5–2.0% take-rate**, that’s **$2.3–3.0B high-margin revenue**. * **Core iBuyer flywheel**: run a **leaner balance-sheet** book at **$40–60B resale GMV** with **4–5% contribution margin**, yielding **$1.6–3.0B** of contribution profit before Opex. * **Attach** (title/escrow, warranties, marketplace ads, partner rev share): **$0.5–1.0B** revenue if attach rates rise with an agent-led ecosystem. Put together, you can plausibly frame **$5–7B revenue** with **20–25% EBITDA margins** (because more of that revenue is capital-light). That’s **$1–1.8B EBITDA** *before* any mania. A platform rerating at **25–35× EBITDA** or **12–15× sales** (for a period) gets you into the **$60–100B** EV zone—i.e., **share price with a “1”**. (Yes: execution heavy. Yes: possible with this mix.) *Anchors for realism:* size of the US resale market, the just-reported contribution/EBITDA turn, and OPEN’s explicit “capital-light” push. [National Association of REALTORS®+1](https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **6) The squeeze-y accelerant.** Right now, shorts still sit at **\~23–26% of float** (Aug 29–31 print). If borrow remains available this stays momentum-led; but **if** CTB tightens while the story improves, you get **forced buyers** on top of retail “Open Army” call-flow. That’s how valuation overshoots *toward* $120 before fundamentals fully catch up. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **7) Why this isn’t fantasy.** * The **team** just changed in exactly the way a marketplace pivot needs. [GlobeNewswire](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **macro** is finally blowing the right way (rates). [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **model** already printed positive Adj. EBITDA in a rough quarter, proving it can work *at small scale*. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Scale the mix toward capital-light fees and keep underwriting tight, and the market will happily pay tomorrow’s multiple on today’s slope.

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