How could anyone anticipate lower inflation after rate cuts? Inflation is not CPI like what the fed would like you to believe. Rate cuts ARE inflationary in nature and the market prices will continue to rise as the dollar gets inflated. Higher equity markets are a sign of inflation. Track the SPY and the M2 money supply overlapped; it’s almost 1:1.
Bro that’s just not what the numbers say:
• CPI Aug 2025: +2.9% YoY → basically stable, not “surging.” Gasoline –6.6%, fuel oil –6.5%. The sticky stuff is shelter (+3.6%), utilities (piped gas +13.8%), medical services (+4.2%).
• PPI: ~+2% YoY → way down from the double-digit 2021 spikes.
• Jobs: Unemployment ~4%, which is historically low (average since 1950 is ~5.7%). Weekly jobless claims still under 250k. Labor force participation steady at ~62.7%.
• Wages: Up ~4% YoY, moderating from 6%+ in 2022.
• GDP: U.S. grew ~2.5% annualized last quarter. That’s stronger than Europe or Japan right now.
• Manufacturing/Capex: Record reshoring — $200B+ announced in semis, EV batteries, and clean energy plants. FDI into the U.S. still the highest in the world.
• Trade: Dollar still king. ~90% of global FX transactions involve USD, ~60% of global reserves still in USD. No sign of countries “trading around us” in a meaningful way.
So no, jobs aren’t “collapsing,” CPI/PPI aren’t “spiraling,” and global capital hasn’t abandoned the U.S. The actual problem is sticky domestic costs (housing, utilities, services) — not some economic death spiral.
Inflation is not under control. Remember the CPI is a lying number and real situation much worse….
And a 50bps cut will slam the dxy even more causing prices to spike and long end of bonds to spike.
But what choice do they have?
Ppi and cpi are both back to increasing, jobs numbers are collapsing, countries around the world now hate america more than ever and are looking to trade around us
Morgan Stanley forecasts Fed rate cuts at all three meetings in 2025 after August CPI surge
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-expects-fed-cut-105931362.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-expects-fed-cut-105931362.html)
1. Stocks: all-time high
2. Home Prices: all-time high
3. Bitcoin: all-time high
4. Gold: all-time high
5. Money Supply: all-time high
6. National Debt: all-time high
7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target"
*Fed: cutting interest rates next week*
#Should we be worried? Or full port?