peter navarro: you dont hike rates during a supply shock. DAMN, someone says it. how is it possible that you had guys like volcker crashing the economy, then later fed chairs knowing you don't hike rates just so they later forget about it? supply shocks already naturally decrease demand, slowing down spending. this is already an hike, guess history really is a circle (edit, only if it spills over into core but core is already trending downard)

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I think this is probably much closer to the core of the issue than simply comparing Chinese and American wages. A car isn't just the labor cost of the people doing final assembly. It's batteries, power electronics, semiconductors, motors, castings, software, logistics, suppliers, tooling and the speed at which all of those things can be developed and scaled. That's also why Brazil and Europe are becoming such interesting experiments. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly moving final assembly outside China. In Brazil they're taking over or reusing existing factories and hiring Brazilian workers. In Europe, BYD, Chery, Geely, Dongfeng and Leapmotor are all moving toward some form of localized production. So over the next few years we're going to get much better evidence about this. If their advantage disappears as production localizes, then Chinese labor costs and domestic industrial conditions were doing most of the work. But if much of the advantage survives, then the supplier ecosystem and manufacturing organization you're describing become much harder to ignore. E para o TurkeyBLTSandwich, eu usaria: This is the part of BYD that I think gets overlooked when the discussion becomes only about subsidies and wages. BYD isn't just taking a conventional Western automotive supply chain and paying the assembly workers less. It has built a much more vertically integrated industrial structure around batteries, electronics, powertrains and vehicle production. That doesn't mean the model is automatically superior or that its current advantage will last forever. American manufacturers can reinvest, reorganize supply chains and bring technologies back in-house. But that's exactly why I think competition matters. We're now seeing Chinese manufacturers take that manufacturing model outside China. Brazil is already getting locally produced Chinese vehicles, and Europe is moving rapidly in the same direction. Once those cars are being made by Brazilian or European workers, the wage explanation becomes easier to separate from the manufacturing-system explanation. That's the experiment I'm interested in watching.

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Competition is literally a core pillar of capitalism until said competition is coming from outside the house, then suddenly it's bad.

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Why did i sell all my amzn last night and put it into core weave...........

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You bought a 380C core-of-the-earth deep ITM on meta on accident? Lmao Bro you can’t just edit it out, it was funny as hell

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Sort of, it's easy to look like a zen god when you're printing money. A lot harder to fix that final bit of really stubborn and sticky inflation that just won't go away and truly deliver 2%. It's been 6 years now doves championing supply shock and transitory inflation. Meanwhile, even with tariff effects cooling, core + services was reaccelerating before the war. So if soft landing means FAIT of 3%-4% in reality, not 2% yes he was achieving that. But affordability crisis isn't a hoax, it's real. And it has really gotten bad.

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Japans market is down right now I think we find out their fed decision tomorrow night. I thought he hiked based on core cpe. either way I think we stay chop, but I really hoped the long end would chill for a minute

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Core inflation is 2.5%, CPI inflation is 3.4%. But core doesn't remove secondary effects of fuel prices (eg clothes go up because shipping went up because oil went up), so it seems that core is overstated, if its aim is to remove transient fuel costs. It seems one could argue that core inflation is right where the Fed wants it. To digress... The bigger question is why 10+ year rates are going up. They reflect a belief either in 1) high future inflation; 2) high future real rates. The fact that 20 year TIPS are paying 2.3% or so below regular bonds suggests that future inflation is believed to be modest, so there's a belief out there that real long term rates will be high. Or government borrowing is flooding the market, or borrowing for the AI buildup is combining with government borrowing. I just looked up AI borrowing, and AI will borrow $190B in 2026, and $200-400B for 2027, at a typical 14 year maturity. The government sells about $1.1T of 10+ year bonds a year, so the AI buildup is a big chunk of that. But wait ... it seems that net *new* 10+ year government debt is only $150 to 300B. Net outstanding mortgages, another pool of long term of debt, grew by $400B. tl;dr - AI is a huge chunk of new outstanding long term debt, and it seems to be squeezing everyone else hard, including housing.

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You're asking if, "there are better ways" when this "way" literally does nothing to lower inflation LOL. Core inflation dropped .1% Month over Month. This is just a way to transfer wealth from consumers to institutional investors.

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man you must live under a rock. they are getting throttled by AMD in server, largely because smaller dies are easier to produce with fewer defects and AMD runs them at higher peak frequency as well as gluing more together. intel's latest diamond rapids is finally pretty close to epyc after being behind for 90 years and surprise its layout looks very familiar to epyc's layout. 18A is the first time in about 10 years that they are "only" off schedule by less than a year. both are fine against ARM, who have raw garbage of a core design team. apple and oddly enough nvidia (recently) have better designs than ARM themselves, but neither are really pushing for enterprise saturation. Nvidia would rather sell a few racks for ten trillion dollars than turn their products into a commodity.

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