ain't no way OPEN doesn't either drill to the earths core or go 2 da moon, no in between bs

---

Their “favorite” metric core is already over 3 before the cut lmao

---

[Because prices](https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1966314642151440508) of a few items that have a bigger weight in the PCE than they do in the CPI posted meaningful *declines* in August, there's a bigger gap or "wedge" between the core PCE and the core CPI last month Forecasters who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect core prices in the Fed's preferred gauge rose around 0.20% last month (vs. 0.35% in the CPI). That would hold the 12-month rate at 2.9% Core goods, in particular, are expected to have declined in August for the PCE; they rose in the CPI. Headline prices are expected to have picked up 0.24%, pushing the 12-month reading up to 2.7% - Nick Timirao

---

I dunno about that one. How can you lose money while giving out loans? I've only skimmed the financials, but there seems to be something wrong with the core business. Or is this just an interest rate hype bet? EDIT: Ah okay, looks like their revenue dropped by 50% in 2022 and never really recovered. I guess the bet is that revenue is gonna increase a fair amount with incoming rate cuts, and they are gonna recover to 2020 stock prices, correct?

---

Alright, I'll try to genuinely address your point, even though I feel like I would just reiterate points from my post. They're both in the housing sector. Sure, the core business is different. Opendoor buys and sells houses. Loandepot gives out mortgages. But guess what, people need to be buying and selling houses for both companies to operate. Since 2022 when rates rose, the housing market has been frozen. No one's buying when mortgage rates are 6.8%. And the ones that bought have no incentive to sell when their rates were 2%. Both companies did better back then than do now, but they over grew so when buying houses went to a crawl, both companies had to downsize to survive and adjust how they did business (example: Opendoor found out not to buy high and sell low; Loandepot continued to refocus on having a more seamless experience with Mello and expanded revenue sources). Hm, maybe I should cite my original post. They both are changing leadership to right the ship. Depending on how they execute in the future is up to be determined. They both are not currently profitable but both of their finances are looking better and better. Hopefully they can both be profitable when housing volume increases: Open will actually be able to sell houses for a profit, and Loandepot will be able to originate mortgages, refi, and act on their servicing book. Their valuations are (were for Open) small. Investing on them has their risks, but both companies are pivoting and have a meaningful chance to realize profits with better macros in the future.

---

**5) The math to $120 (one credible path).** * **Marketplace/agent-led GMV**: assume OPEN builds a national seller funnel and intermediates **\~$150B GMV** within a few years (a mid-single-digit share of a \~$2T+ existing-home market—i.e., not crazy if their top-of-funnel wins). With a blended **\~1.5–2.0% take-rate**, that’s **$2.3–3.0B high-margin revenue**. * **Core iBuyer flywheel**: run a **leaner balance-sheet** book at **$40–60B resale GMV** with **4–5% contribution margin**, yielding **$1.6–3.0B** of contribution profit before Opex. * **Attach** (title/escrow, warranties, marketplace ads, partner rev share): **$0.5–1.0B** revenue if attach rates rise with an agent-led ecosystem. Put together, you can plausibly frame **$5–7B revenue** with **20–25% EBITDA margins** (because more of that revenue is capital-light). That’s **$1–1.8B EBITDA** *before* any mania. A platform rerating at **25–35× EBITDA** or **12–15× sales** (for a period) gets you into the **$60–100B** EV zone—i.e., **share price with a “1”**. (Yes: execution heavy. Yes: possible with this mix.) *Anchors for realism:* size of the US resale market, the just-reported contribution/EBITDA turn, and OPEN’s explicit “capital-light” push. [National Association of REALTORS®+1](https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **6) The squeeze-y accelerant.** Right now, shorts still sit at **\~23–26% of float** (Aug 29–31 print). If borrow remains available this stays momentum-led; but **if** CTB tightens while the story improves, you get **forced buyers** on top of retail “Open Army” call-flow. That’s how valuation overshoots *toward* $120 before fundamentals fully catch up. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **7) Why this isn’t fantasy.** * The **team** just changed in exactly the way a marketplace pivot needs. [GlobeNewswire](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **macro** is finally blowing the right way (rates). [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **model** already printed positive Adj. EBITDA in a rough quarter, proving it can work *at small scale*. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Scale the mix toward capital-light fees and keep underwriting tight, and the market will happily pay tomorrow’s multiple on today’s slope.

---

**3) The business mix shifts from steel to software.** OPEN’s own words: it’s evolving to “**serve many more sellers and capture capital-light revenue streams**” via agent-led distribution and marketplace-style options (think instant offer *plus* listing rails, referrals, and B2B buy-side pipes). That’s margin mix shifting from low-teens gross to **software/marketplace-like** take-rates on GMV. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **4) Unit economics already turned a corner.** In **Q2’25**: **$1.6B revenue**, **$128M gross profit (8.2%)**, **$69M contribution profit (4.4%)**, and **first positive Adj. EBITDA since 2022**. It’s not victory—but it *is* a working chassis to scale. Guidance later dipped for Q3 (seasonal + mix), but the core signal is: OPEN can print positive unit-level margins in a bad market. [Opendoor+1](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

---

rate cuts probably priced in. if fed pulls up their big boy pants and doesn't cut rates ( probably will due to external pressure and job data) we drilling to the core.

---

everything is at 18:30? what is mom what is core what is not core... please explain this is wsb not some economics

---

Bers aren't just bad at trading. They are bad people down to their core

---