My F-350 drinks diesel like a semi truck. Thankfully I have my mom's credit card

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They said they'd be worth three trillion dollar in 2030 a week ago 😅

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I remember you from a month ago. Where are you getting this money? [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1vtmsuo/comment/p4ur1rr/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1vtmsuo/comment/p4ur1rr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)

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you wouldn't be here if your psychic abilities panned out 6 years ago

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That's a legitimate risk to consider, but that's also why I keep proposing local production rather than unrestricted imports. Require BYD or any other Chinese automaker entering the US to build locally, employ American workers, comply with US labor, safety and environmental rules, and make its corporate structure and subsidies subject to the applicable US trade and competition rules. Then the “they're only cheap because China subsidizes exports and pays Chinese wages” hypothesis becomes much easier to test. Brazil is already giving us an imperfect version of that experiment. Chinese companies that arrived here 15+ years ago didn't automatically succeed. Chery struggled badly in its early years but stayed, localized and eventually partnered with CAOA. JAC initially had a much stronger launch, but its passenger-car operation later shrank dramatically. Now BYD, GWM, Chery and Changan are localizing manufacturing in Brazil and employing Brazilian workers, while competing against GM, VW, Stellantis, Toyota, Hyundai and others that also manufacture here. If the business model really depends on permanently selling cars below cost, localization won't magically make that sustainable. But if Chinese manufacturers can eventually make money producing locally while still offering competitive prices, then we have to consider another explanation: maybe part of the advantage actually comes from manufacturing efficiency, batteries, vertical integration, platforms, procurement and scale. That's exactly what I want to find out. I don't want American workers flipping burgers either. I want to know which manufacturing system can employ them while producing globally competitive cars.

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One thing I think is missing from this discussion is that Brazil has already been through an earlier wave of Chinese automakers, and it shows that being Chinese, having lower manufacturing costs or offering more equipment does not automatically guarantee success. Chery entered Brazil in 2009, long before the current EV boom. Its first attempt was not particularly successful. The cars could offer a lot of equipment for the money, but the products, powertrains, dealer experience and overall strategy were not yet sufficiently adapted to Brazilian conditions and consumer expectations. Several early models disappeared. But Chery stayed. It built a factory, accumulated experience and eventually partnered with CAOA, a Brazilian automotive group with decades of experience in the local industry. CAOA had previously built its business through Ford dealerships, imported Hyundai vehicles and eventually manufactured Hyundai vehicles in Brazil. The result is that today's CAOA Chery is almost unrecognizable compared with the Chery that entered Brazil more than 15 years ago. And now CAOA is doing something similar with Changan. Changan is a separate Chinese automaker, but CAOA is using its Brazilian industrial and commercial infrastructure to manufacture and sell Changan products here as CAOA Changan. That is important because this competition is no longer limited to cheap imported EVs. Chinese-designed ICE, mild-hybrid, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are increasingly competing with traditional manufacturers too. JAC is a useful counterexample because its history went almost in the opposite direction. JAC entered Brazil in 2011 with a huge marketing campaign, quickly established a large dealer network and initially sold quite well. It promised Brazilian manufacturing, but that passenger-car factory never materialized. Over time its light-vehicle operation shrank dramatically and most of that original dealer footprint disappeared. So Brazil has already demonstrated something important: Chinese origin alone doesn't guarantee success. Chery initially struggled, stayed, learned, localized and found a strong Brazilian industrial partner. JAC had a much stronger initial launch but failed to establish the same industrial footprint and eventually became a much smaller player. Now we're watching a much larger second wave. BYD took over Ford's former industrial complex in Camaçari. GWM took over Mercedes-Benz's former factory in Iracemápolis. Renault and Geely are expanding their industrial relationship. GM itself is assembling Chinese-developed Chevrolet EVs in Ceará through products originating from its Chinese ecosystem with SAIC and Wuling. Toyota and BYD have a 50/50 EV R&D joint venture. Tesla complicates the story even further. Tesla is one of America's biggest automotive technology success stories, but its battery supply chain has always been international. Panasonic was fundamental to its early scale, while its later battery sourcing expanded to suppliers including LG Energy Solution and CATL. So the modern auto industry is already much more interconnected than “Chinese technology vs American technology” suggests. And this is why I find the comparison with Japanese and Korean automakers so interesting. Foreign manufacturers don't necessarily remain importers forever. They enter a market. Sometimes they fail. Sometimes they learn. They change products, establish dealerships, find local suppliers, partner with domestic companies, hire local engineers and workers, and eventually manufacture locally. Brazil watched Japanese and Korean companies go through versions of that process. Now we're watching Chinese companies do it. And localization gives us a much better experiment for the question this thread started with. If BYD, GWM, Changan or another Chinese manufacturer loses most of its price advantage after producing in Brazil, Europe or eventually the US with local workers and local regulations, then Chinese wages, subsidies and domestic production conditions were clearly responsible for a large part of that advantage. But if a significant advantage survives localization, then wages cannot be the whole explanation. Battery costs, vertical integration, platform architecture, supplier organization, procurement, automation, manufacturing scale, development cycles and margins all become part of the answer. That's why I don't think the most interesting experiment is simply importing millions of Chinese cars into the US. Make them manufacture there. Make them employ American workers. Make them comply with American safety, labor and environmental rules. Then compare the products. Brazil is increasingly doing exactly that experiment with Brazilian workers. And after watching what happened with Chery and JAC over the last 15+ years, I wouldn't assume the result in advance. Localization can expose weaknesses just as easily as it can expose advantages.

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Because wsb was motherfucking it to death a few weeks ago. Inverse wsb :smoking:

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Recently heard in an interview that China has more automotive production capacity than total world demand for vehicles, and that they are continuing to bring new production online. They have very focused industrial policy and a ton of direct government support for manufacturers. It seems like running other countries' car industries out of business might be a goal that the Chinese government are putting real resources behind. That's on top of real advantages in manufacturing that have been compounding for decades as western countries outsourced all of their manufacturing to China. They might well be winning this competition even if their government wasn't putting its finger on the scale. American car manufacturing, like all the other major industries, is just run to make the capital class as much money as possible. Most of it was outsourced a long time ago to make these people more money. There's no long term strategy there. American leadership keeps Chinese competition out, and bails out US car companies when they screw up, because they realize that losing all advanced / vehicle manufacturing puts the US in a very weak position, but beyond that we don't have the sort of focused industrial policy and ability to pursue long term goals that the Chinese system has. It feels like a reflection of our different political and economic systems more than it's about these specific manufacturers getting soft. Government support and protection for US car companies can feel odious because it ultimately just lines the pockets of rich people and kicks the can down the road. It sucks for US consumers in the short term that we cant buy cheap EVs, most of us are poor and getting poorer. I think you can make a case that in the long term this kind of protection of US industries makes some sort of sense.

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Thats why I bought all my sandwiches 40 years ago before inflation

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Yeah I kept seeing your annoying spammy posts while in the thread and commented a handful of times over a week ago. Meanwhile you dug through my posts. Kind of proving my point lol

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