Have you seen the recent anti-fentanyl ads on television? Leading off with a girl dying from smoking laced weed was not only a creative choice, but a propaganda tool for a long ways away full federal legalization IMO. The ad is directly from the current administration. This might be schizo-posting, but I do think the things might be sort of linked.

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with all these ads on Thursday night football calls on AMZN

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**5) The math to $120 (one credible path).** * **Marketplace/agent-led GMV**: assume OPEN builds a national seller funnel and intermediates **\~$150B GMV** within a few years (a mid-single-digit share of a \~$2T+ existing-home market—i.e., not crazy if their top-of-funnel wins). With a blended **\~1.5–2.0% take-rate**, that’s **$2.3–3.0B high-margin revenue**. * **Core iBuyer flywheel**: run a **leaner balance-sheet** book at **$40–60B resale GMV** with **4–5% contribution margin**, yielding **$1.6–3.0B** of contribution profit before Opex. * **Attach** (title/escrow, warranties, marketplace ads, partner rev share): **$0.5–1.0B** revenue if attach rates rise with an agent-led ecosystem. Put together, you can plausibly frame **$5–7B revenue** with **20–25% EBITDA margins** (because more of that revenue is capital-light). That’s **$1–1.8B EBITDA** *before* any mania. A platform rerating at **25–35× EBITDA** or **12–15× sales** (for a period) gets you into the **$60–100B** EV zone—i.e., **share price with a “1”**. (Yes: execution heavy. Yes: possible with this mix.) *Anchors for realism:* size of the US resale market, the just-reported contribution/EBITDA turn, and OPEN’s explicit “capital-light” push. [National Association of REALTORS®+1](https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **6) The squeeze-y accelerant.** Right now, shorts still sit at **\~23–26% of float** (Aug 29–31 print). If borrow remains available this stays momentum-led; but **if** CTB tightens while the story improves, you get **forced buyers** on top of retail “Open Army” call-flow. That’s how valuation overshoots *toward* $120 before fundamentals fully catch up. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN/key-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **7) Why this isn’t fantasy.** * The **team** just changed in exactly the way a marketplace pivot needs. [GlobeNewswire](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/10/3148276/0/en/Opendoor-Names-Kaz-Nejatian-as-CEO-Founders-Rabois-and-Wu-Rejoin-Board.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **macro** is finally blowing the right way (rates). [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * The **model** already printed positive Adj. EBITDA in a rough quarter, proving it can work *at small scale*. [Opendoor](https://www.opendoor.com/articles/2025-second-quarter-financial-results?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Scale the mix toward capital-light fees and keep underwriting tight, and the market will happily pay tomorrow’s multiple on today’s slope.

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I work at a dealership. We all mostly make 100k or less. They are running ads directly solely at employees about our great employee pricing at audi. WTF? NONE OF US CAN AFFORD AN AUDI AT ALL.

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NVDA’s fundamentals make it deserve its market cap, I believe AGI is just a small part of all of this, no one has guaranteed it by a certain date, if a company like META can use NVDA GPUs to provide better tailored ads and improve their revenue, then boom their cap ex is justified AGI isn’t in the picture here. As long as earnings growth continues to justify capex on NVDA GPUs the whole story is intact.

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Mobile TruthSocial is HILARIOUS! It’s literally a 🥭tweet sandwiched between 6 identical MyPillow ads LOOOL

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He fell for the ads on reddit

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Ads are still the bulk of its revenue and its future is uncertain with AI chatbots. I'm sure GOOG stock won't totally suck but I don't expect it to beat QQQ especially at this level

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Getting SNAP ads on IG is interesting.

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Look, I'm overall bullish on Alphabet, for the most part. I just don't think their current valuation is reasonable, for multiple reasons. The bigger you are the slower future growth will be. Saying they make a ton of money means a 15% CAGR will be harder and harder to sustain, eventually forcing multiples lower. Furthermore if you look at their quarterly reports ever since ChatGPT came out their paid clicks % growth keeps getting lower and lower almost every quarter. Search revenue is still over 50% of their total revenue and its growth is a function of Paid Clicks % x Cost-Per-Click %. Look at the quarterly reports and you'll see that they managed to offset the Paid Clicks growth deceleration by charging more per ad click. Again, I think the company will do fine. Especially once they start scaling up Waymo more aggressively. Until then, however, I think a lower PE is in order. If Chat GPT eventually decides to start running ads within their answers it will still hurt Google. Even a 10-20% market share loss, which is not unreasonable given how much more adoption ChatGPT has over Gemini at present, is still a big deal when most of their revenue is still from search. If their revenues were more balanced as in the case of Microsoft, then I'd say a high PE is more than justified. Currently, if you strip away gains on equity securities, they're trading at a PE of around 28. It only shows you 25.5 because of the accounting change in around 2018 when you could report unrealized gains from investments in your net income. TLDR: I don't think the company is bad, I just don't agree that it's fairly valued at present valuations. This is why there is a stock market. You think it'll go to the moon and I think it won't so we exchange. We'll see who's right in time. I don't have to swing at every pitch if I don't like some of them.

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