AVYA up 13% today - the new short squeeze?

Shares of Avaya Holdings Corp (AVYA) are trading -9% lower at a price of $1.01 at the time of this writing. The stock is floundering behind peers on a optimistic day for the Information Technology sector.

Currently, meme traders are evaluating AVYA as a possible short squeeze candidate. See comments below:

Avaya Holdings Corp has been trading between a 52-week high of $22.47 and a 52-week low of $0.5962. The stock has a market cap of $86.7 Million.

Businesses are built by the experiences they provide, and every day millions of those experiences are delivered by Avaya Holdings Corp.. Avaya is shaping what's next for the future of work, with innovation and partnerships that deliver game-changing business benefits. The Company's cloud communications solutions and multi-cloud application ecosystem power personalized, intelligent, and effortless customer and employee experiences to help achieve strategic ambitions and desired outcomes.

Here's a few choice comments from the Reddit Traderverse™:

Salty_Reflection_603 - 3 upvotes - source
$AVYA looking like a possible play this week.

airwaymaster - 3 upvotes - source
Any news about AVYA?

mywifeleftme_420 - 3 upvotes - source
spy puts, energy calls, AVYA. What else would I be doing?

doinshit_nah - 2 upvotes - source
Talk to Theo he has a thesis as well. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eycdOLuup\_onwAWfMWmu1AgjR\_68HzPa/view](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eycdOLuup_onwAWfMWmu1AgjR_68HzPa/view) 100% he accumulated an additional 1.8m shares since his filing Aug 8 making him a 15% owner.Don’t believe “the entire thesis” is based on 13fs, but you are correct some of the thesis is. However, If you own 5% or more of a security as all firms I listed do, then it’s required to report a 13d (or 13g) until holdings drop below 5%. ***If own 10% or more of a security then changes to holdings must be filed within 2days of the transaction***, multiple firms I list own 10% or more of AVYA and I have not seen a filing that shows the position have changed. *Actually, 3 funds own 10% or more of AVYA accounting for 52million shares.* So 85-52=33m, and 15/33 = 45% short. Still significant, however the two 8% holders have not filed a 13d/13g so I assume they are still in making it 75% short. However, this isn't the entire thesis.... I am making assumptions but they are not unreasonabl. Also the dude who bought 15% of AVYA is making the same assumption that I am and he has considerable more experience, wealth, and knowledge than me >Furthermore, the market making operations in Avaya’s common equity are highly unusual given the trading volume relative to the free float (\~48M) shares traded in the 24-hour period of August 19th). ***I suspect that these are synthetic shares and based on June 30th 13F filings, very few of Avaya’s institutional shareholders have reported reductions in their shareholding.*** [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eycdOLuup\_onwAWfMWmu1AgjR\_68HzPa/view](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eycdOLuup_onwAWfMWmu1AgjR_68HzPa/view) (footnote on pg 3)

doinshit_nah - 1 upvotes - source
Definitely shilling AVYA rn, my rationale laid out above and in the comments. Do you think $AFRM $UPST $ROKU are pump and dumps btw?

bye_ear - 1 upvotes - source
AVYA shares ya heard

mywifeleftme_420 - 1 upvotes - source
AVYA. You’re welcome.

TNNashGuy - 1 upvotes - source
I bought AVYA

doinshit_nah - 1 upvotes - source
Just read the footnote your talking about in the doc [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418100/000119312522227517/d359845dsc13ga.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418100/000119312522227517/d359845dsc13ga.htm). I think he’s implying a squeeze without saying it directly. Hence the quote "*The market topology at present time is highly favorable*" and "*significant short covering of the 14.98M shares currently short,*" which is pretty clear.... on pg 3. ​ >Between now and October 1st 2022 when the 8% 2027 Notes become convertible – prior to this date, if there is a sharp upward movement in price, there would likely be significant short covering of the 14.98M shares currently short, which would reflexively need to be purchased and likely with sequential failure to deliver events, given the technical inability to convert the Notes into Common Equity according to the Indenture. In turn, this could bring the 2027 8% Notes back ITM and very likely above par. > >Furthermore, the market making operations in Avaya’s common equity are highly unusual given the trading volume relative to the free float (\~48M shares traded in the 24-hour period of August 19th). I suspect that these are synthetic shares and based on June 30th 13F filings, very few of Avaya’s institutional shareholders have reported reductions in their shareholding. > >Unwinding of Convertible Note hedging would swiftly restore confidence among all Avaya stakeholders. Keep in mind this isn't a smooth brained aped charleton's usually espousing squeezes and pointing to the metrics (like my self 🙃) this is a man who recently bought 15% of AVYA, went to wharton, and this exerpt is from his 13g filed today. The convertible notes I need to review, however the conversion price is $3.42 a share the price is currently at $1. So I'm getting a bit confused but CB holders can covert for $3.42 a share October 1st, I see incentive for them to do this if if the price is above this level after this date? If it's above this level it implies rapid price appreciation. ​ Hopefully, someone chimes in and helps me analyze this. A unique situation. Ah read the letter again Theo is suggesting board do something to bring the convertible bonds ITM quickly: [https://imgur.com/a/NUHYctW](https://imgur.com/a/NUHYctW) It's also worth noting that Theo claims its a small position for him [https://twitter.com/dkl1897/status/1562038240202440706?s=21&t=YxkW8I13gRTk7Qe3oAD-Yg](https://twitter.com/dkl1897/status/1562038240202440706?s=21&t=YxkW8I13gRTk7Qe3oAD-Yg) given what he knows about the market topology and FTDs and the timeline he could force the issue......he did buy an additional 1.8m shares between now and Aug8th, after revealing his initial position of around 11m shares early in the month

Curious-Barnacle-752 - 1 upvotes - source
Check this DD analysis. https://www.reddit.com/r/avya/comments/wv9k11/avya_short_squeeze_candidate_and_extremely/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf